If you are somewhat new to NBA betting, you may be wondering what strategies make the most sense. Here are a few that can help you to gain a better understanding of the league and learn more as you bet.
Start early
One of the better ways to gain an advantage is to get your bets in early. Depending on where you are, that can mean 8-9AM or earlier. With information being shared as quickly as it is these days, the window for taking advantage of breaking information closes rapidly.
A great tip to use is betting early because you can get ahead of things like injury news and inefficiencies in the lines. Bookmakers get more and more information the closer to tip-off things get. Betting early means being able to capitalize on potential mistakes or a lack of news prior to correction. It isn’t necessarily something that will happen daily, but it can lead to several potential advantages.
Follow player trends
Whether you plan to bet on teams or player props, following trends is crucial. You usually want to stick with the teams and players who have been hot over the short term. Sure, the trend could end at any time, but wouldn’t you rather tail a guy who has been on fire versus someone who has been cold as ice?
For instance, check out a player like Nikola Jokic. Find the lines that seem most enticing – rebounds, points, assists, or some combination of them – and check out his stat lines over the last five or ten games. If you notice a trend of him going above those totals better than 50% of the time, it is worth riding the wave. Teams and players get hot all the time in the NBA, but it can be a crucial factor to finding a winner along the way.
Watch the schedule for mismatches
Though it takes a little more than a basic knowledge of the league, there are mismatches to be had within the schedule. The bookmaker recognizes these, too, and adjusts the book so that the winnings aren’t damaging.
Still, you can find advantages in the schedule. Perhaps Jokic does well against divisional opponents at home. If you notice that his team is in that scenario, it can provide an obvious betting scenario. Or perhaps you notice that the Bulls cover 70% of the time against road underdogs. Watch the schedule, look for the mismatches, and capitalize on them.
Possessions are a key stat
It can be all too easy to focus on stats like average points per game. But perhaps the more telling stat is possessions per game. Simply put the more a team has control of the ball, the more opportunities that they will have to score.
Teams who have fewer possessions will not only be a less likely candidate to cover but will challenge the under as well. Teams who possess the ball at a higher level tend to have a higher production output. For instance, in 2021-22, four of the top five in possession metrics wound up being money-makers on the bet slip.
Possessions are perhaps the best metric you can find to consistently predicting something like overs. Depending on the matchup, it may be a good tool to use to predict the spread as well.