By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Eurohoops analyzes all the games in the EuroLeague in terms of betting. Last week was not successful for the column, but now the season is heading down the homestretch and predictions are, in theory at least, easier.
Zalgiris are in excellent form with four wins in the last five games and are in fact serious candidates for the top eight. The last home wins were against CSKA and Barcelona and the Lithuanians are now definitely in a positive frame of mind. Respectively, Fenerbahce have five wins in the last six games and are fighting for the home court advantage in the playoffs. Sloukas’s absence, however, might cost them dearly. Otherwise, the visitors could win by a difference of more than the 4,5 points of the handicap. However, it’s preferable to bet on the Under (@OPAP 1,75). With the limit at 155,5 points, it’s preferable to trust the defense and the slow tempo that, both the teacher, Obradovic, and the student, Jasikevicius, go for.
Galatasaray are at the bottom of the standings and in the last rounds they are going to try to finish the season with their heads held high. However, Ataman’s decision not to include Schilb and Preldzic in the line-up is definitely going to put the Turkish team in trouble again. Real Madrid are in better shape, they have a strong incentive to stay at the top, they have nine wins in a row and thanks to their roster they can exceed the 8,5-point handicap (@OPAP 1,75).
Essentially, now Bamberg only have mathematical hopes of qualifying, while Crvena Zvezda want to secure their place in the playoffs. The Serbs tend to control the rhythm completely when they play at home and keep the score low. As in the previous week, the limit (79,5 points) is high for Zvezda’s points. Besides, they’ve scored more than 80 points only three times in a total of twelve games. Bamberg’s defense isn’t bad and so the Under (@OPAP 1,75) seems extremely likely.
Maccabi have two wins in a row at home, but with an overall record of 8-15 and 3-14 after the win at the Peace & Friendship Stadium, their overall image is definitely disappointing. Olympiacos don’t want to slip up like they did in the first game, but this time they have to fight without Vassilis Spanoulis. Thanks to chemistry, quality and motivation, the visitors have a strong advantage to prevail and, actually, in relation to a team that constantly makes changes to its roster, Alexander and Miller are not going to play, and Smith and Goudelock are extremely doubtful. The handicap of 4,5 points is small and the Red-and-whites can exceed it (@OPAP 1,75).
Baskonia – Milan
The two teams have led opposite lives throughout the year. Baskonia had an impressive start to the season but now, with one win in their last seven games, they are even in danger of missing the playoffs if they don’t recover. On the contrary, Milan are still bringing up the rear but have visibly improved and are fighting for their games, having three wins and three defeats by less than six points in the last six games. The handicap of 8,5 points goes against the course of these two teams and makes us want to bet on the away win, but Baskonia are expected to break out and so it’s better to avoid this one.
The tips
Zalgiris – Fenerbahce Under 155,5 points
Galatasaray (+8,5) – Real Madrid 2
Crvena Zvezda – Bamberg Crvena Zvezda Under 79,5 points
Maccabi (+4,5) – Olympiacos 2