By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
On the one side, Giannis Sfairopoulos’s team wants to secure the home court advantage in the quarterfinals, on the other, the Serbs are aiming first to ensure the qualification and then to get the best possible placement in the standings.
Crvena Zvezda – Olympiacos
Olympiacos are coming from a blunder at home against the unmotivated Galatasaray. In Belgrade they have the opportunity to “lock in” the advantage and enter the final three laps of the regular season with the least possible pressure. The home team is in good shape and they seem like they have the momentum. Nonetheless, Sfairopoulos’s team is much better and has the quality to depart from Serbia with the away win, with or without Vassilis Spanoulis. The payoff (@2,12 at OPAP) is quite satisfactory so we’re including it in our choices.
Another good option from this clash is Erick Green’s Over 10,5. Olympiacos’s American guard is in excellent condition offensively and he looks like he can go over this particular line. Especially in the case that Vassilis Spanoulis doesn’t play or plays less than what he usually does, then the payoff (@1,70 at OPAP) is even better since Green is going to get more room and time to score.
Real Madrid – Barcelona
Prognostics are impossible with derbies, especially the ones that involve teams from the same country. Regardless of which team is better or which team is of greater interest in terms of the standings, both are after the win for reasons of prestige also. Barcelona look like the big outsider against the leaders in the standings, Real, but in every game between them – except for the crushing defeat in the first phase of the EuroLeague – they were very competitive, having actually won two of them. So, the handicap (+7,5 with a @1,75 payoff at OPAP) has value and we’ll include it in our betting.
Galatasaray – Unics Kazan
Galatasaray will host Unics in Istanbul for a game that is of no interest in terms of the standings for neither of the two teams. In front of their fans, the Turks have an advantage for the win (@1,38 at OPAP). The Russians, though, are competitive in most of their games and this is why the handicap (+4,5) is marginal. We could opt for the home win but keeping always in mind that a game that is unimportant in terms of the standings always entails a certain amount of risk for the one placing the bet, since there is a lesser incentive for the teams to win.
CSKA – Darussafaka
CSKA Moscow have already advanced to the next phase and they also have the home court advantage in the quarterfinals. Darussafaka are burning for the win so they can stay on track for the qualification. In any case, the Turks have a workable schedule and regardless of what happens in Russia they can pull off three wins, a number that might be enough for the coveted ticket to the EuroLeague playoffs. Blatt’s team has a greater incentive to win but on CSKA’s turf things are pretty tough. The handicap (+10,5) is quite marginal and rather high so we’re not keeping anything from this particular game.
The picks
Crvena Zvezda – Olympiacos 2 @2,12
Green Over 10,5 @1,75
Real Madrid – Barcelona (+7,5) 2 @1,75