By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
The Turks, in any case, don’t have a strong home court and if the Greeks are serious they can get the qualification before the fifth game, a choice that has a 2,15 payoff and is definitely worth it.
For the first game, Olympiacos – as makes sense – are offered as the favorites, but the 1,25 payoff isn’t attractive enough. Respectively, the 6,5-point handicap is rather high for a game like this. So, it might be better to look at the special bets.
Olympiacos are going to try to slow the pace down and not allow Efes to run on the open court. The limit of 79,5 points for the Piraeus team is high even for a home game, but it’s better to bet on the Under 151,5 so that you’re covered in any case.
The limit for Bryant Dunston is set at 9,5 points, while he has scored a double-digit number of points in seven of his last eight games in the EuroLeague. His shooting percentages are high, he takes on a lot of plays and the Over will probably be confirmed.
Easy qualification for Real
Real have a strong advantage for the qualification against Darussafaka, who are in the playoffs for the first time, and can advance before the series even goes to a fifth game. The choice for the Whites to advance in 3-0 or 3-1 has a 1,30 payoff and was included among the initial choices of the column. However, it’s worth betting on the 1,90 for the Madrilenos to go through in 3-0 as well, since it’s going to be difficult for the Turkish team to put up much resistance.
Regarding the first game of the series, Real have a strong advantage for the win, but the handicap at 11,5 points is huge for the opening game of a series since a second one follows 48 hours later.
So, it’s better to opt for the special bets on players. Gustavo Ayon went through a slump in his performance in the last three games of the regular season, but Darussafaka’s frontline with their heavy bodies is a good fit for him to score more than 9,5 points. Besides, he scored a double-digit number of points in 11 of the last 12 games of the second phase! So, we’re going with the Over.
The picks
Olympiacos – Efes Under 151,5 points
Bryant Dunston Over 9,5 points
Gustavo Ayon Over 9,5 points
Long-term bets
Qualification for Olympiacos in -1,5 2,15
Qualification for Real in -1,5 1,30
Qualification for Real in 3-0 1,90