By Lefteris Moutis/moutis@eurohoops.net
The EuroLeague includes a double round this week and this makes people’s interest even greater, while there are also numerous betting opportunities for all the teams.
Panathinaikos – Khimki
Panathinaikos are coming off a great away win at the Peace and Friendship Stadium against their eternal rivals, Olympiacos, and the psychology of Pascual’s team is soaring. One of the Greens’ goals in the regular season of the EuroLeague is to retain an unbeaten home record so that with 4-5 away wins they will be able to secure the home court advantage for the playoffs. Khimki came to Greece with a significant absence, as Gill will be out of competitive action for the next 4 weeks. The American forward has been a key player in his team’s recent games, both in offense as well as in defense.
The 1,70 for Shved to be the top scorer of the game is a good payoff since no other player he can reach his ceiling in scoring. The Russian guard has an average of more than 20 points and if he’s not thrown off rhythm from Panathinaikos’s good defense inside the Olympic Sports Center in Athens, he might confirm the bet.
Gill’s absence means Anderson will have the ball more and he might play in ‘4’ for some minutes. Either way, the American is in excellent form and he plays for almost 30 minutes in the EuroLeague, an impressive figure for a team with that amount of quality and options on its roster. We’ll hold on to the 1,65 for the over 12,5 for the American forward.
Crvena Zvezda – CSKA Moscow
Nando De Colo has been in demonic form in recent games, scoring with amazing percentages both in the EuroLeague as well as the VTB. The 19,5 points can be surpassed by the Frenchman (at 1,75) since he will play close to 30 minutes due to Westermann’s absence for the Russians. Although, if he goes so high in his scoring he might emerge as the top scorer of the game, so it’s better if we go with 2,05 on this bet.
Fenerbahce – Olympiacos
Olympiacos are going up against the champions, Fenerbahce, in Turkey to repeat last season’s big EuroLeague final. Perhaps the toughest – together with those in Moscow and the Olympic Sports Center in Athens – away game for the Reds in the regular season of the competition. The last two defeats of the Greek team – especially the one at home to Panathinaikos – have caused some grumbling and, as a result, the players and coaches shut themselves inside the locker room for two hours in order to discuss what was at fault. Olympiacos have shown many times that they know how to react after such defeats and, against Fenerbahce, everyone has an extra motivation to put up a good performance. The +6,5 for the away win at 1,75 is worth it and can be included in our bets, as can the under 76,5 for the home team, also at 1,75.
From the player bets, there are several options that are worth it, like the over for Printezis, Thompson, Strelnieks, Milutinov. It makes sense that the lines for Olympiacos’s players are given a low payoff because of the great difficulty of the game and the fact that the game tends toward the under. Despite this, it’s worth risking it with Strelnieks (1,65 for the over 6,5), who is in good form, and Milutinov (1,70 for the over 8,5), who might be suitable for this kind of game.
Baskonia – Real Madrid
With Pedro Martinez on the bench, Baskonia is now in much better shape, both competitively as well as psychologically. On the other side, Real have been looking rather tired and probably affected by the injury problems that have been plaguing them. Laso is trying to open up his team’s rotation either with internal changes, giving more time to certain players, or with transfer moves in order to cover the gaps of Ayon and Kuzmic. For the domestic league, Baskonia got an easy win, but the Madrilenos lost at home in the round’s big derby against Barcelona. A home win for the Basques is a good option and with a good payoff (at 2,02).
Bamberg – Barcelona
Whoever likes playing for high payoffs and chasing… bombs, the 5,75 for Wright to be the game’s top scorer is an excellent choice. The American forward has added quality to Bamberg’s roster both in offense – especially – as well as in defense. He will play close to 25 minutes and will take on close to 12 shots, so if he shoots with good percentages (he shoots well from 6,75 as well) and finds a rhythm in the offense, there is a good chance that he will give us this 5,75!
Unicaja Malaga – Zalgiris Kaunas
Sarunas Jasikevicius’s Zalgiris look great in the first 6 rounds of the EuroLeague, whether playing at home or away. Ulanovas’s injury is significant for the Lithuanians and might turn out to be crucial, both in defense as well as in offense. On the other side, Malaga is always strong at home and traditionally hard to be beaten, not just by Zalgiris but by even better teams. They have a good roster and with the help of their fans, there are periods when they get into a rhythm and play very beautiful basketball. We’re expecting a close game in Spain, with the details, in the end, deciding the winner. The +4,5 handicap for the away win (at 1,75) isn’t bad and can be included in our choices.
Picks
Fenerbahce under 76,5 / @1,75
Shved top scorer of the game / 1,70
Baskonia – Real Madrid 1 / 2,02
Nando De Colo top scorer / 2,05
Strelnieks over 6,5 / 1,65
Milutinov over 8,5 / 1,70