By Lefteris Moutis / moutis@eurohoops.net
Both will be tested on difficult home courts, with Panathinaikos going up against Crvena Zvezda in an inhospitable environment in Belgrade and Olympiacos travelling to Istanbul to face Ataman’s – now – Efes.
Crvena Zvezda – Panathinaikos
From this game, there is a player bet that has value. In the H2H between Bjelica and Singleton for who will score more points, Panathinaikos’s American has the edge because of the form the two players are in but also because of the Greens’ absences. The absences of Calathes and Pappas will give more shots to the others and some of those will probably go to Singleton, who might not be having his best season so far but who is a key player in Panathinaikos’s offensive function.
A win for Crvena Zvezda on a home court that is pretty inhospitable for Panathinaikos could also be an option. The Greek champions have important absences in the backcourt and the question is how long they can hold under the pressure of the Serbs. In any case, the 1,52 for a home win can be included on one of our bets, while we could also take a risk with a home win with a handicap (-2,5 at 1,75).
Valencia – Zalgiris
Zalgiris have shown excellent things so far and Sarunas Jasikevicius’s work is paying off, getting the attention of Europe’s basketball community. On the other side, even though Valencia have a quality roster, they are not playing well, suffering consecutive defeats in the EuroLeague. Perhaps this is the time to have a breakout win at home and a good performance. We also expect that Zalgiris have to have a bad away game at some point. The 1,45 for the home win can be included on a combo bet.
Bamberg – Real Madrid
Thompkins has been scoring double digits in the last few weeks, shooting with excellent percentages. Last week he scored 12 with 3-for-4 three-pointers. The American’s line has risen pretty high and at some point Real’s player will either have a bad game or shoot with lower percentages from the 6,75m-line. The Under 10,5 has a good chance of getting us paid.
Anadolu Efes – Olympiacos
Olympiacos are coming off a huge win, but the strain is also huge after 48 hours. Efes were easily defeated by Khimki in Ataman’s debut, but they can definitely show up improved. So, it’s preferable to go with the Under, since the limit set at 156,5 points is very high for the standards of this game. Efes are the second worst team in terms of their output at home with 77 points on average, and Olympiacos the worst team in term of their output away from home with 72,1. Respectively, away from the Peace and Friendship Stadium, Olympiacos concede 73,3 points. So, we’re choosing the Under at 1,75.
Baskonia – Barcelona
Baskonia have found rhythm and chemistry, playing better basketball now with Pedro Martinez on their bench. Granger’s condition remains a question mark, since he didn’t play in Italy against Armani Milan and is a key player for the Basques, both in offense as well as in defense. Barcelona are in bad shape and seem unable to pick themselves up competitively, suffering yet another defeat at home, this time by Unicaja Malaga. In case Granger plays, then the home win at 1,52 has a good chance of getting confirmed, as does the home win with a handicap (-2,5 at 1,75).
Malaga – Milan
Here we have one more possible home win (1,36) with Malaga going up against Armani Milan. Plaza’s team is coming off a big away win in Barcelona and they want to cash in on this win by protecting their home court. This is an important game for both teams in their effort to get in the top eight spots that lead to the playoffs. Both had a bad start to the season that left them behind, but there is still a long way to go in the EuroLeague and with a streak of 2 or 3 wins a team can get back into the qualification game. Milan – despite their clear improvement in recent games – are weakened when they play abroad, which leads us toward a home win for Unicaja, who are always strong on their turf.