By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Both are probably aiming for the home games where they will face more winnable opponents compared to the tests away at Barcelona and Madrid.
Last week we didn’t do so well in mainstream markets since we had 1 hit out of 4, with Olympiacos being the only one confirming our tip and Maccabi, Barcelona and Zalgiris losing their games.
Fenerbahce – CSKA Moscow
A big encounter between, perhaps the two best teams (together with Real) in the competition. Usually, there’s no room for prognostications in these games but we can go against the slight advantage that betting companies give to the home team, like we did in Real’s game against CSKA in Madrid. We are going to go with the handicap on the away win (+3.5) at 1.75. When we’re talking about teams of this level, the chances are at 50-50 before the jump ball independently of the home court, which is confirmed by the previous confrontations between the two teams in the last two years (3 out of 4 games in the regular season were away wins).
Barcelona – Olympiacos
With Pesic on their bench, Barcelona are playing good defense by following their coach’s philosophy. At home, in fact, they’re managing even better, which is perfectly normal. Olympiacos, on the other hand, are not as efficient in offense away as they are in the games at the Peace and Friendship Stadium. And this is because they either don’t shoot with the same percentages or because they have longer dead intervals in their game. Common sense suggests that we will go towards the Under in Barcelona and the Under 158.5 at 1.75 is worth being included on one of our bets.
Darussafaka – Zalgiris
If Wolters doesn’t play then the game is not going to be easy for Jasikevicius’s team. Despite that, the easy way or the hard way, they can get the win away at Darussafaka. The Lithuanian champions are a more quality team and if they want to get in the Top 8, which is their big goal this season, then they will have to be winning these kinds of games.
Armani Milan – Bayern Munich
The game in Milan will probably move towards the Over, since the home team likes to play fast basketball. Bayern is a team that can keep up with the Italians’ pace and drive up their score. The absence of Booker for the Germans gives Williams the opportunity to play close to 30 minutes and to take on a lot of shots. Armani is not exactly the best team in the league in terms of defense. The American is in excellent condition and the Over 14.5, despite the fact that it’s pretty high, can be included on one of our bets.
Pick
1. Fenerbahce – CSKA Moscow 2 (+2.5) / 1.90
2. Barcelona – Olympiacos U 158.5 / 1.75
3. Darussafaka – Zalgiris 2 / 1.47
4. Derrick Williams O 14.5 / 1.78