By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
Eurohoops starts the Euroleague play offs analysis with the couple Barcelona – Panathinaikos. The steadier team of the competition faces a unit is rebuilding but also is the heir of a heavy basketball tradition. It’s the remake of 2011 play offs, when Panathinaikos won on the road the second game and got the qualification to the final four with 3-1 victories.
Barcelona is the favorite, so far has an amazing season and the mind boggling record of 22-2. Only two defeats in 24 games. The first one happened in the regular season at home against CSKA Moscow in a game that didn’t mean anything on the standings and the second in Top16 on the road against Khimki. Still the quarterfinals starts from point zero. Nothing before those games matters, the starting line is the same for both opponents and they have to get three wins in order to advance.
Panathinaikos total Euroleague record this season is a respectable 15-9. The Greeks are stronger at their home gym with a 9-3 record and they have complete balance on the road with a 6-6 record. However, we have to judge them on the basis of Top16, when their roster and their style of play was finalized. So here are the 10 keys of this series, five for each team, that will probably decide the outcome.
BARCELONA
- This team has proved that no matter who is on the court, the produced basketball is the same. It’s what coach Pascual has drown and everything derive from his system and his orientation. Barca is a solid group which puts emphasis on defense, has principals in its game and it’s very efficient in the low post. Can the team continue acting like that in the play offs, or the importance of those games and the fact that they are almost back to back may change its image and its concentration, as it happened in 2011? We bet that it’s the first thing on coach Pascual’s mind.
- Barcelona scores 82.2 points per game with 57% shooting percentage in two points shots, 40% in three pointers, has 6 more assist than turnovers and almost always controls the rhythm of the games. However, they have to find a way to cover the absence of Pete Mickael and maybe also their leader, Juan Carlos Navarro, who is battling with foot injuries since last season. We have to deduct from the equation the 11.3 points of Mickael, we don’t know yet what to do with the 12.3 points of Navarro and it’s a given that the best defense of Top16 – that’s Panathinaikos’ – will try to keep Barcelona under, or at least close to 70 points. Will Barcelona stat closer to its average of 82 points? If the answer is yes, then the Catalans will get what they want. If the answer is no, then we will have some really close games.
- With Pete Mickael out – for many the best isolation scorer in Euroleague since Dejan Bodiroga – Rabaseda injured and Navarro not 100% ready, one more key for Barcelona is to find other players that can contribute to the offense, excluding of course the front line. The bell tolls for C.J.Wallace and Joe Inglesh who are producing together 11.3 points per game so far. Will they have bigger production now that they are needed? We have to see that and the question also applies to Alex Abrines after his explosion against Maccabi Tel Aviv.
- Victor Sada is the defensive specialist in the back court, but Barcelona needs at least one more. Diamantidis and Ukic are used almost 35 minutes in every game and they are the best thing the Greens gave in their perimeter. Pascual has to tire them and wear them up if he wants them to make the wrong decisions in the end of the game. Sada can only defend one of them. Who will be the second “terminator”?
- How many minutes the best blocker in this season’s Euroleague will stay in the game? Stephan Lasme has change the image of Panathinaikos for the better in defense, control of the rhythm and possessions. Only if he has some big nights, Panathinaikos will have a counter measure to the low post game of Barca. So we expect that Barcelona will aim on him from the starting minutes in order to get him in foul trouble and out of balance. If that’s the case, then Barcelona will have the advantage.
PANATHINAIKOS
- Many keys, as someone can expect, are the flip side of those which Barcelona wants. Panathinaikos is depended, maybe overly, on Diamantidis and Ukic. The Greens need to find one more guard and have him ready to produce. In a series of games, how can 3D and the Croatian stay fresh until the end without help? Will Banks step up? Will Xanthopoulos do it? Will we see more forwards one the court and only one creator instead of two? It’s a really big question.
- Will the Greens hit their open shots? Panathinaikos is depended on the three pointer and when his players are above 36-38% they win. When they don’t, the team has trouble reaching the plateau of 70 points. Against a team with big bodies, like Barcelona, the efficiency in the three pointers is even more crucial and the Greek team will have to make more than 8 threes, specially in order to break the home court advantage in Barcelona. Bramos, Maciulis, Diamantidis, Ukic, Bancks, even the power forwards, have to be in a great shooting form.
- How can Panathinaikos contain the “Blaugrana” front line of Tomic, Lorbek and Jawai. They produce 29.3 points per game, they are great in finishing the pick and roll and also they can play with their back to the basket. Lasme can’t do everything alone and with the exception of the Australian, nobody is a good defensive match up for Shortsanitis.
- Will Panathinaikos keep the game in low tempo and low scoring, like he did four times against Real Madrid? The Greens score 71.5 points, so they have no other choice. The problem is that the team of coach Pascual is at least one class better than Real in five on five situations. Everyone should sacrifice his body on defense and every player from Panathinaikos’ bench should give something in order for this to happen.
- Will Panathinaikos do the break in one of the first two games, like it did in 2011? That will be the biggest key. If not, it’s almost impossible to win three times in a row without the margin for a mistake a team with the quality and the stability of Barcelona. There is only one way: They have to find complete balance between defense and offense.
PREDICTION: FOUR GAMES
Barcelona has the advantage, but it has to prevail over a really competitive opponent, the best defense of Top16 and a coach who will try to mess with its game and destroy its offensive efficiency. Panathinaikos will be a really tough opponent. However, our prediction is that this series will be decided in four games. There is also a good chance for a five games series, if Panathinaikos gets a win in the first two games.