Play offs analysis: CSKA – Caja Laboral

By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net

Here’s a couple with a clear favorite and of course CSKA Moscow is the better team, compared to Caja Laboral. The fact is that the “army team” hasn’t yet demonstrated the stability we expected, but had a strong finish in Top16 and the home court advantage in order to get to London.

The quality of the Russians’ roster help the team get a 20-4 total record. Coach Messina changed a lot of things, even during the season, made adjustments not only on the court, but also on the players he had in his roster and now he has a reasonable chemistry and also a defined rotation, capable of getting the team to the title.

The last three weeks CSKA made a little but important jump to the next level and it seems that the team will reach its performance peak in the most important moment of the season. However, the CSKA has to face a team that twice survived this season, managing to get first to Top16 and then to play offs with a no surrender mentality, the feisty and unpredictable Caja Laboral.

Caja can beat anyone in a good day, but also the opposite may happen. That’s evident in the total record of 12-12. The funny thing about it it’s that Caja has the exact same record at home (6-6) and on the road (6-6), but, at least on paper, CSKA seems to have all the answers against the team of coach Zan Tabak. So here are the five keys for each team in order to succeed.

CSKA Moscow

1. The first thing that CSKA wants for the play offs is to keep its momentum from the Top16 finish and even get better. After many experiments, the roles of the players are defined, the defense is getting better and better and in offense everything starts to click with at least 4 or 5 players that can be a threat. CSKA plays efficient basketball and its target is to continue doing it for more and more minutes. That’s the biggest picture at this point, getting better and better.
2. The defense is still a work in progress for CSKA, specially in man to man situation. Playing straight defense has caused a lot of troubles to the team so far. Important players of the team, like Teodosic and Krstic, has visible weaknesses and that makes them “targets” for the opponents. Caja is a smart team, so we expect to do the same. In the play offs, all the players of CSKA gave an extra effort, the presence of Khryapa covers a lot of holes and also getting more minutes to Sasha Kaun gives a presence in the paint. Messina will not hesitate to use zone defense, in order to get the advantage that the long bodies of his players give to the team.
3. One more quest for CSKA will be to get even more players involved in the offense in order to make the defensive assignments of the opponents even more difficult. Teodosic, Krstic, Kryapa and Weems are a constant offensive threat, Kaun and Micov have gained attempts during the season by their effort and by the fact of being good finishers – each with his own distinctive style – but still they can get better working as a unit. This is were Papaloukas’ role comes into play, as he provides a boost in creativity and in reading defenses and creating miss matches.
4. The balance between defense and offense and a better assists – turnovers ratio. It’s not bad to have 18.7 apg but not combined with 13.5 turnovers. Those turnovers can lead to easy points for Caja and transition and if the Basques find any kind of offensive rhythm, it will not be easy to stop them.
5. The defense against Maciej Lampe. Coach Messina always has a primary defensive target and you don’t have to be an oracle in order to understand that he will do everything in order to cut Lampe from the rest of his teammates and fortify CSKA’s paint. The Italian coach has the bodies to do it and the next step in his defensive scheme will be to get quick and right defensive recoveries in order to deny any open shots to Caja.

Caja Laboral

1. The keys for Caja Laboral are much more difficult to achieve, because the Basques are lacking in quality compared to the Russians. The most crucial goal for coach Tabak will be the impose the rhythm that suits his team and not CSKA. A more uptempo game with a healthy does of street ball will make his team more dangerous, will maybe give more open shots and better shooting percentages and also mess the mind of CSKA.
2. The most urgent need in order to get CSKA’s offensive production down from 78,2 points (56,5% in two pointers and 41,7% in threes) is to control the boards. It’s not easy to do it against a strong opponent, with many big bodies and many offensive threats.
3. The second way for Caja to shake CSKA’s self confidence and get into the game will be to try to impose a high scoring duel while taking advantage of the Russians defensive problems. That means two on two plays between the point guard and the center, specially when Teodosic and Krstic are on the court together.
4. Caja will have to make the open threes. In order to win three times a team like CSKA, the Basques have to do better than shooting with 35,8% like they did so far in the season. They have to make big shots and the shooting efficiency not only of the guards, but also of Nocioni and Nemania Bjelica, will be vital.
5. CSKA is really good in stopping the offensive threats of their opponents, so Lampe, Bjelica, Nocioni and San Emetario will be in a constant fight just to get the ball. So, coach Tabak will have to get some production from the players who have a secondary role so far, like Heurtel, Causer, Jelinek or Pleiss, in order to get points.

PREDICTION: CSKA IN FOUR GAMES

CSKA has the home court advantage, the ambition – since the team hasn’t won Euroleague since 2008 – and every tool needed in order to get to the Final Four. The only thing the Russians have to do is to continue their improvement which is evident after Khryapa’s return from injury.

CSKA can do it in three games, but let’s say four, but there is one condition for success. They have to crush the spirit of Caja Laboral in the first two games and prove on the court to the Basques that they can’t do nothing better this season than playing in the play offs. This spirit is the biggest asset Caja seems to have at this point after surviving in regular season and in Top16 in the nick of time and that’s what makes the team dangerous for any opponent. So, nobody should underestimate them.