By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
It’s the most balanced play offs series according to the numbers, but also according to the image of the two opponents in the bulk of Top16, despite the fact that they had opposite courses. Real Madrid kept a steady pace during the regular season and the first half of Top16, but ended the second phase of the competition with three defeats in four games – two of them at home – and also lost to Valencia in Liga Endesa last weekend.
Maccabi Tel Aviv on the other hand finished the Top16 with six wins in seven games, an impressive run that help the Israelis become a better team, build their self confidence and gave them the belief that they can win on the road. Maccabi missed the home court advantage in the last Top16 game, by losing to Barcelona and getting killed by the scoring spree of Alex Abrines.
The Spaniards have a 17-7 record so far, they produce better basketball at home (10-2), but they are not as strong on the road (7-5). Maccabi seems to have more balance in its 15-9 record with 8-4 wins in Tel Aviv and 7-5 away from “Nokia Arena”. Let’s see the keys of their match up.
- The biggest question for Real in Euroleague during the same remained the same and there isn’t a clear answer yet. Can Madrid excel also at set game situations, or at least play half as good as in transition? The Spaniards are probably the best uptempo team in Europe this season, but their problems on five on five plays are more than obvious. That can be their Achilles heal and they have to do better both in defense and offense if they want to go all the way.
- In the same mindset, here the crucial point that make all the difference between success and failure. How can Real improve its game against organized defenses? The quick answer is to feed more the paint and that’s why in Top16 the experienced captain Felipe Reyes was the top low post scorer of the team and not Slaughter, Begic or Hettsheimeir. Still they need a more stable threat under the basket.
- The second possible solution for Real in this area, that usually decides Euroleague titles, is to stop being so depended in the three points shots of Carroll, Rudy, Llull and Sergio Rodriguez. However, it’s kind of hard for the team to change its playing style in April, so in order to get to the Final Four they have to do better than 30% shooting efficiency from the three points line that they had during the Top16.
- Also the individual scoring performance of Rudy and Mirotic will be more than crucial. Those two players scored 347 of the team’s 1085 points in Top16, so they should continue to produce at this rate in order to shoulder the main offensive burden of Real.
- In defense, coach Laso has managed to create an aggressive DNA to his players. They are very good at pressing the ball, specially in the back court and against Maccabi this will come handy. The Israelis play a lot of isolation basketball, so Madrid’s players should be really focused in their individual defensive assignments. That means not only the guards, but also the front line, since the two players they have to stop first and foremost will be Hickman and James.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Coach Blatt is a great tactician, he always read well every opponent, he will do the same with Real and we are sure that he will set as his first goal to control the tempo of the game, leave fewer possessions to Real and that means also less chances to score in transition. Panathinaikos did that in the four games against Real – and the wins were split 2-2 – and that’s the road map for every opponent the Spaniards.
- In order to do that Maccabi has to be effective in its defensive transition in order to be ready to face Real with its defense organized. It will not be easy. If he Israelis want to succeed, they should control the boards, be quick and also make their shots in offense.
- Maccabi does the opposite that most Euroleague teams do. The Israelis find their defensive rhythm through their good offense, something really unusual in European basketball. So, they will try to get some damage early one, relying on one on one plays and also by hitting their open shots, something they did in the second half of Top16, having in some games shooting percentage in threes over 40%.
- Shawn James is having a great season, he explained his transformation in his Eurohoops interview, but against the big bodies of Real Madrid, Blatt will need at least one more center that can get the job done. If Real manage to contain James, then who will be the presence of Maccabi in the paint?
- We are speaking about play offs intensity, so even if a team has many good one on one scorers, like Maccabi, its players will have to work together in the offense in order to prevail. Yes, that means more assist and so far only Ohayon is the systematic facilitator of the offense. Ricky Hickman will have to display some play making ability in order to get more of his teammates involved.
PREDICTION: BEST OF FIVE
You never know what can happen in the play offs and this series is a prime example for that. Those two teams will probably face each other five teams and everything will be decided in the last game. After all, both can get a road win. According to their last month performance, if we had to give a prediction by percentages we will go by 51% to Madrid and 49% to Maccabi.