By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
We saved this series for last. The defending champions against the only Turkish club left standing in the quarterfinals, a team with a exquisite roster consisting of players of great individual quality, considering the Euroleague standards. However, if we take into consideration both teams’ results so far, Olympiacos seems to hold the luck of the series in its hands.
The Greek team has a 17-7 record and here is a weird fact. Its record is better on the road. In Piraeus the Reds have a respectable 8-4 and outside Greek borders the number is 9-3. On the contrary Anadolu Efes has a total 14-10 record, with 9-3 home wins and a negative 5-7 on the road.
What those numbers illustrate? The champions can be defeated at home, but they are fully capable of winning in every gym. By comparison, Anadolu can be considered a team playing better at home. Both teams finished the Top16 having some troubles. Efes has many up and downs, Olympiacos search for duration in his game.
Olympiacos
- The Reds have to play efficient defense. That was their trademark last season, it characterized the team and only this way they can prevail. Because of Anadolu Efes’ quality back court, it will be crucial for the Greeks to defend well the perimeter. The best individual defender of the team, Vaggelis Mantzaris, is out for the season, Spanoulis will not be spend chasing the opponents and Olympiacos have to get defensive stability by Acie Law and either Doron Perkins, or Dimitris Katsivelis have to step up.
- The performance of Law will be more than crucial. First of all, he is expected to match up with Jordan Farmar and also because he will have to be the second main creator of the Reds after Spanoulis. Law had delivered some big games last season in the same role against Siena and he gave the extra push to Olympiacos for the Final Four.
- This Euroleague season almost every team is very depended on three points shooting and Olympiacos is not an exception. The Reds don’t have many options in the low post and they had a decent 33,6% shooting percentage in threes during the Top16. In order to beat Efes, they will have to get some big shots by their forwards (Papanikolaou, Perperoglou, Printezis, Antic). They will be getting the ball by Spanoulis, when the defense collapses on the Greek guard, and if they make their open shots, then the Red offense will be efficient.
- Olympiacos doesn’t have a center than can be an offensive force in the paint, play with his back to the basket or create for his teammates. Their best low post scorer is last season’s hero, Giorgos Printezis. Coming from a low back injury, his performance will be crucial for his team. His match up with Savanovic can alter the balance of the games, depending on who will prevail, because the other bigs of Efes don’t have the agility and they are not fast enough to keep up with him.
- Olympiacos is searching for biggest duration in his game and this is the right time of the season to find. Defense aside, the bench will be a very important part of this effort specially in back to back games with a 48 hours break between them. Players like Antic, Powel, Shermandini, Perkins and Katsivelis have to contribute.
Anadolu Efes
- Basketball is also game of psychology and rhythm, So, coach Mahmuti has to find a way to keep out from his players’ minds the bad Top16 finish. After seven straight wins, Anadolu Efes lost four games and won only two in the last six. Also, those wins weren’t that convincing, even against teams like Brose Baskets and Alba Berlin. Anadolu Efes lost the home court advantage in the play offs in the last game and if they can’t get over this mentality, they face they danger of two more defeats in Greece and then it will be difficult to react.
- The team has to find again its balance that lead to good basketball and wins. That means that there must be a silver lightning between the playing style of coach Mahmuti and Jamon Gordon and the completely different ball game of Jordan Farmar. Gordon was promoted to the primary decision maker by his coach and has the ball in his hands for a lot of minutes, but this plan will not work if Farmar (mainly) and Vujacic don’t play up to their maximum potential.
- It is strange, but there is a weird occurrence in every game of Anadolu Efes. It’s a team that right from the start sets to tone, good or bad, for each performance. When there is a good start and the team has the lead from the 1st quarter, usually they win. When they are chasing the opponent from the first minutes, they can’t do much in order to turn the tables and get the “W”. In Piraeus, a bad first quarter can be fatal, however Olympiacos also has been known this season for lazy starts in his games.
- In order to stop the Reds, coach Mahmuti will probably use also zone defense. In the past such kind of defenses have short circuit Olympiacos and with a zone Efes can hide the obvious individual defensive weaknesses of its players, with the exception of course of Gordon and some of their bigs. His focus will be Spanoulis, but some kind of zone defense will also help getting hands in the face of the shooters. It will be easiest to do it this way, than play man to man.
- In the offensive end, Jamon Gordon will be as crucial as in defense, but also the team has to shoot more than 35% in threes – something not that hard considering its roster – and get some big contribution by the Turkish players. Tunceri, Erden and Gonlum must produce. That way, Efes will create many problems in Olympiacos’ defense and despite its complete front line, its guards are expected to do the main damage by scoring and also creating.
PREDICTION: The two scenarios
Olympiacos seems to have a little advantage, but nobody really can be sure about the outcome of this series. If Olympiacos starts with a 2-0, then the Reds can finish the series in Istanbul. If Anadolu Efes gets the break, then all signs lead to a five game series with a spectacular last encounter.