By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
The last gameday of Euroleague’s regular season is upon us and for the first time there are so many open tickets for the second phase of the competition until the last moment. At this point only 11 teams have secured their spot in Top16 and only in Group D the situation is decided at least concerning the four teams that will advance. Of course we have to focus on the teams that will advance, however the final standings will be pivotal in the creation of the two new Top16 groups.
That creates many different scenarios and many conspiracy theories about teams which will have the chance to pick on Friday in which Top16 group they will end up. At this point Euroleague – and we – can only hope that the teams will not decide to do that, in order to protect their image and also the image of the competition.
And that brings us to our tip off, which will be in its usual format, since 6 games are equally important for the future of the competition and specially for the 12 teams competing.
Group A
There is only one open spot in the group and the odds changed drastically last week after the big win of Partizan in Istanbul against Fenerbahce/ Ulker in combination with the defeat of Nanterre on the road by Budivelnyk. Both teams now have a 3-6 records and the Serbs hold the tie breaker advantage.
If Fenerbahce beats Nanterre on the road, then Partizan gets through. The same applies in the case of a Partizan’s home win over CSKA Moscow at Belgrade no matter what will happen in France. The only way Nanterre can get to Top16 is a win over Fener combined with a win of CSKA Moscow in Serbia.
Group B
Real Madrid and EA7 Milano have secured mathematically their qualification, leaving Anadolu Efes, Brose Baskets and Zalgiris Kaunas fighting for the two open spots. That makes the game Brose Baskets vs Zalgiris and Anadolu Efes vs Real Madrid more than important.
The Turkish team can advance with a win over unbeaten so far Real Madrid (21-0 in all competition this season). A defeat by the Spaniards makes the disqualification more than possible..
A win of Real combined with a win of Brose Baskets over Zalgiris, will create a festive atmosphere in Bamberg as both the Germans and the Lithuanians will advance. Zalgiris can get to Top16 by beating Brose Baskets or by losing by 10 points or less in combination with wins by Efes and EA7 Milano. There is also one more far fetched scenario that favors Zalgiris even in defeat, as the Lithuanians can get through via wins of Real and Strasbourg.
First and historical!
In case of a Brose Baskets’ win over Zalgiris with 11 or more points, then the German champions don’t have to worry about anything else. We have to notice here that Zalgiris has a great 7-0 streak against Brose Baskets and that will make a possible win of coach Flemings’ unit not only the first but also historical in a much more meaningfull way.
Group C
Olympiacos has locked the top spot and also Galatasaray has secured the second place. The important game here is the duel between Siena and Unicaja Malaga. The winner will get the qualification, but Unicaja even with a defeat can hope for a road win of Galatasaray at Munich over Bayern. That’s the only scenario that keeps the Germans out of the next phase, despite the fact that they can’t finish higher than the fourth place.
What to see…
This time Thursday, with 8 games scheduled, is much more important than Friday which have only four games. So get ready for Partizan vs CSKA Moscow, Nanterre vs Fenerbahce, Brose Baskets vs Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes vs Real and Siena vs Unicaja on Thursday. The only Friday game which may decide a Top16 ticket is the encounter between Bayern and Galataray.
2014 and Top16
You read all the qualification scenarios about the five teams which will continue their season in Euroleague together with Real Madrid, EA7 Milano, Olympiacos, Galatasaray, Fenerbahce, CSKA, Barcelona, Maccabi T.A., Panathinaikos, Laboral Kutxa and Lokomotiv Kuban.
The final standings in most case is still undecided – Real Madrid, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Olympiacos will finish first no matter what and Galatasaray second in their regular season groups – and we have to wait until Thursday night in order to get a clear picture of the two Top16 groups. Then everyone will have a week of rest and with the dawn of 2014 we will have the start of the most intriguing part of the competition, considered by many the “real” start of the Euroleague.