By Aris Barkas/ barkas@eurohoops.net
With two weeks left almost everything can still happen for the last four open play offs births. Still some teams have their luck in their hand, like Olympiacos, Maccabi and Panathinaikos and others are depended on their opponents results. The scenarios about the exact final standings at this point are too many, so this week we will examine the most possibles and the most extreme ones.
In Group F, because of the 7-5 record of third placed Maccabi Tel Aviv, the next game at Munich is the key. If Maccabi beats Bayern (5-7), then it seals its play offs birth, as the Israelis have the tie breaking advantage against Lokomotiv (6-6) and Galatasaray (6-6), the only other two teams of their group which can finish the Top16 with 8 wins and the Germans will have more than slim chances of a place in the Top8. In the last game Maccabi faces already qualified CSKA Moscow, but even with two defeats the Israelis are in danger only in one particular scenario, which favors Bayern.
The Germans have to win both remaining games against Maccabi Tel Aviv and Lokomotiv Kuban on the road in order to create a three way tie with the Israelis and the Russians at 7 wins, in which the Germans will have the advantage over both opponents because they would have two wins over Lokomotiv. In that case both Maccabi and Lokomotiv can end up out of the play offs, provided that Galatasaray manages to get two wins and the third place of the group by beating CSKA Moscow on the road and Partizan at home.
However, even a four way tie at 7 wins is possible. In that case Maccabi will be third and Bayern fourth. This seems a really far fetched possibility because it demands from Lokomotiv Kuban to beat Real Madrid in Spain and then lose at home by Bayern. It has to be noted that Maccabi has already the tie breaking advantage over both Galatasaray and Lokomotiv.
What’s really interesting is the possible two way tie between Lokomotiv Kuban and Galatasaray which may decides who gets to the play offs. Both teams are completely tied, having shared the wins in the two games between them (1-1) which were decided just by one point. That means the final goal average may decide the tie break and at this point Lokomotiv is at zero (942-942) and Galatasaray is at -1 (923-924).