By Aris Barkas/ barkas@eurohoops.net
With two weeks left almost everything can still happen for the last four open play offs births. Still some teams have their luck in their hand, like Olympiacos, Maccabi and Panathinaikos and others are also depended on their opponents results.The scenarios about the exact final standings at this point are too many, so this week we will examine the most possibles and the most extreme ones.
In Group E, Olympiacos (6-6) and Panathinaikos (6-6) with a win next week, on the road against Efes for the Reds and at home against Unicaja for the Greens,seal their qualification and in their last game of Top16 at SEF between the two of them, the third and fourth place of the final standings will be decided. However, if they are defeated, then things get complicated and the game at SEF will be a fight for survival and there’s also one scenario that can leave Olympiacos out of the play offs, even with a win against Efes.
If the Reds beat Efes and then lose by Panathinaikos, Unicaja (5-7) beats Panathinaikos and lose to Milano, while Fenerbahce (5-7) gets two wins in the last two remaining games, then in a three way tie between Olympiacos, Fener and Panathinaikos (7-7), the champs will be knocked out because of their two defeats by the Greens. Fener and Panathinaikos will get the last two play offs spots.
So, the team of coach Obradovic still has play offs chances, however the Turkish team is worst in every tie break possibility. That’s why Fener has to get two wins against Laboral Kutxa and Anadolu Efes in order to reach the magic number seven and then hope for the above scenario or that only one team from the trio of Panathinaikos, Olympiacos and Unicaja (5-7) gets also to seven or more wins. Practically that means a win of Unicaja at OAKA and then a defeat of the Spaniards by Milano and a win of Panathinaikos at SEF.
Also if Unicaja gets the win over Panathinaikos and then against EA7 Milano, can get to the play offs by condition of the Greens losing at SEF in their last game. Even in a three way tie at seven wins (two wins of Unicaja, win of Panathinaikos at SEF and win of Olympiacos against Efes) Malaga can turn the tables by winning with a big margin at OAKA.
In a possible three way tie, Olympiacos (+31) has the point difference advantage in the games between the three teams, Panathinaikos is now at -12 and Unicaja at -19. So if Malaga gets a win by four points at OAKA , the point difference of the Spaniards will be at -15, Panathinaikos will be worst at -16 and the Greens will need a win by two points at SEF in order to qualify. Of course, Olympiacos will miss the play offs if the champs lose both games against Efes and Panathinaikos.