By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
Last season’s final remake while be quite different in a best of five play offs series. In 40 minutes it’s easier to get an upset, however the Real is the big favorite to go all the way and in order to do that, the right way is to beat the champion.
That’s exactly what the Spaniards had to do. Real Madrid is unbeaten at home and almost 80% of their home games were a walk in the part which ended with a big point different and high scores, basketball quality and tempo. The big difference compared to last year is that Real is not only the most dangerous European team in transition, but also a real force in set game.
This change has to do with three important factors. First of all the floor general of the team, Sergio Rodriguez, has a career year and he almost always takes the right decisions, he knows how to set up his teammates, he always dishes the right pass and he shots with a 55% efficiency from the three points line. Secondly, Nikola Mirotic is no longer playing only facing the basket, but also with his back on it in the low post and third, the addition of Giannis Bourouris, who is much more consistent scorer in the paint compared to Mirza Begic.
Olympiacos has the greatest leader on the court – at least that was proven in the last seasons – and his name is Vasilis Spanoulis. The back to back champions have pride and they also are considered the underdogs. That’s what can take the pressure off them and make them really dangerous.
The Reds can also run, but they would probably try, specially at Madrid, to change Real’s game, to control the tempo by good rebounding and make things hard for Real.
The data
Five players can make or break Real Madrid’s game. Those are Rodriguez, Llull, Rudy, Mirotic and Bourousis. They produced 60+ from the 85 points that Madrid scores per game. Draper is a real quality player, but he is used mainly as a defensive stopper, Darden is really useful, but he plays second fiddle to Rudy and Slaughter’s role compared to last season is reduced. The team will also miss the sharp shooting abilities of still absent Jaycee Carroll. If Sergi is blocked, then the rest of the team will also face trouble.
Olympiacos is more than dependent of Spanoulis who will always be the defensive focus of every opponent, but hopes that the duo of Mantzaris and Sloukas can also contribute more than usual. Bryant Dunston also will be a main offensive weapon, while players like Petway, Lojeski, Perpergoglou and Shermadini will provide bodies, endurance and consistency in the Reds’ effort.
The big question for Olympiacos is how they will keep up against a team that has uptempo game in its DNA and four great perimeter players (Rodriguez, Llull, Draper and Rudy). On the other side, there are three guards which will take the bulk of minutes, Spanoulis, Sloukas and Mantzaris. If Acie Law was not injured, the most important player of last year’s final, things would be different. His replacement, Mardy Collins, doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Real’s backcourt and Katsivelis has the physical tools, but until now his role is really diminished in the rotation.
If the Reds can mess up with Rodriguez and Rudy’s mind early in the series, they will have a fighting chance. Matzaris is expected to be the one who will match up with “El Chacho” – the other choice could be Katsivelis – and for Rudy, don’t be surprised if you see former Texas Longhorn Ioannis Papapetrou being used against him, at least during the start of the games.
Despite being 20 years old, the Greek forward is the only player in Olympiacos’ roster who has the body and the speed to match up perfectly with Rudy and that’s the role he is expected to play in defense.
Our exit poll
Like in the case of CSKA Moscow and Panathinaikos, the goal of Olympiacos will be to steal one of the two games, in order to try and finish the series at home.
Real Madrid is invincible until now at home and of course that makes them the favorite. They have the home court advantage, the speed, the talent and the depth. Olympiacos on the contrary has a lot of inexperienced players at those kind of games who are expected to adapt immediately.
The problem of Real Madrid is the following. The Spaniards will face a team that needs a basketball miracle and the Reds are just the team to do so. To be exact they have to repeat what they did the last two seasons. The difference is that now one game will not be enough…
Real is the better team, but we expect a fight. And that may be crucial. We are in mid April, Real Madrid is demolishing every opponent and we haven’t seen the players of coach Lasso react under real pressure. We have never seen them prevailing, after things going wrong. So we don’t know how they will cope with pressure, if Olympiacos manage to get things difficult for them.