By Panos Katsiroumpas/ info@eurohoops.net
Here we are, just hours before the Euroleague Final Four which will take place in Mediolanum Forum of Milano. The only thing for sure is that on Sunday night we will have a new European Champion after a two years Olympiakos’s domination. So who will be the new king? We will analyze the two semifinals and give you our prediction, starting with the second game, the “classico” between Real Madrid and Barcelona.
The Catalan team advanced to the Final Four after an easy 3-0 sweep in the series against Galatasaray while Real Madrid had a huge battle against Olympiakos and prevailed finally in Game 5 in Palacio des Deportes after a thrilling series. The two opponents know each other very well, as they have played each other 10 times in the last 12 months. Those are the previous season’s Euroleague semifinal where Real won a close game in the end, the five game series for the league title in Spain, the games of the regular season this season, the final of Copa del Rey and the Supercopa of Liga Endesa. Real Madrid have won seven of those gamesand Barcelona three. It’s obvious that the teams know each other very well and there is not a lot of space for surprises in their games.
Talent, depth in rosters, different philosophy
This game could easily have been also the Euroleague final, as the two teams have huge amount of talent, very big depth in their rosters but different philosophy in the way that they like to play the game.
Real Madrid loves to run, to execute instantly, to play in transition. In most of their possessions they are looking for quick executions mostly in the 10-15 first seconds of the possession. They use their talent and basketball instinct that is their main characteristic. In the first three games of the season they beat Barca playing this way even though in the final of the Copa del Rey they faced huge difficulties. In their last game few days ago for the regular season of Liga Endesa, Barca changed the way they played defense. Navarro spend most of the game on the bench and Pasqual used Oleson, Abrines and Papanikolaou in the position of shooting guard and small forward. All three are good defenders with big size and athleticism. Real Madrid that couldn’t find a way to play the basketball they like against them, faced huge difficulties in the execution part and didn’t find any rhythm at all in the offensive end. We have to see if Barcelona will use the same tactic in the semifinal also.
The team of Madrid try to attack the basket almost instantly in almost every transition situation and most of the times they did that with a simple screen away of the ball in the wing for Rudy Fernandez. He tries to use his quickness either to execute or drive to the basket and if any help comes to guard him, he try to pass the ball to the open teammate. In most cases the open man is Llull outside the three points line or Mirotic in the wing and this is easy for them because Rudy is very good both in execution and in ball movement.
Another play that Real Madrid likes to use is the isolation for Mirotic who is a very skilled and talented player. Despite his size, he can play facing the basket because he is very quick and also a good mid-range shooter or he can post his opponent if he is undersized, move to the paint and finish the play.
If Real Madrid cannot find a shot in the first part of their possession, then starts to face problems. The defense has enough time to set and Real doesn’t have the time and space needed to creat a team play. When Real has the ball in the last 8-10 seconds of possessions, they set most of the times a pick and roll for instant execution by the guards in the majority of cases, or a they pass inside the paint for a finish near the basket. They also like to create isolation situations for Rudy and Llull playing a simple “clear out” and then the players decide the way of execution. Sometimes they try also to post Darden who is a really strong and very athletic forward, when he has a size advantage over his opponent.
When Sergio Rodriguez and Carroll enter the court Madrid tries to run even more. Rodriguez attacks instantly his opponent either in one on one situations or getting a high screen for a pick and roll which ends with his penetration after the screen or a mid range shot. In another frequent play, they set screens in the wings and in the baseline for Jaycee Carroll in order for him to get the one second needed and execute mainly from the wings. The bad thing about Real Madrid is that Carroll seems out of shape after his injury and they miss a role player who in a good day can change the game in favor of his team. It will be a huge advantage for Real Madrid to have Carroll in good shape in the Final Fours, but the odds are not with their side.
On the contrary, Barca is the best European team in the set offense. The key player in this philosophy is Marcelinho Huertas. He is the best pick and roll player in Europe, he is an incredible passer and he can take advantage after the screen in order execute mid range shots with very high percentages. Barca also has Tomic who is maybe the best finisher after a pick and roll situations and he is also a good passer on the week side when the opponent send a third player as a defensive help in order to stop the pick and roll.
Barca has a lot of movement in the offensive end. They set screens and also “fake screens” (player headed for screen and before giving the pick, with an instant move they cut to the basket) that confuse any defense and lead in easy baskets for the persons who are setting the screen. They also set a lot of screens away from the ball giving their shooters the chance to get some open looks and they are almost perfect in passes on the weak side.
When Tomic and Lorbek are together on the court Barca’s first choice is to put the ball in the paint and have isolation plays for them with the other players creating good distances. In case of a double team, the other three players have the opportunity to execute open shots after the pass from the big guy. If there’s no help, then Tomic and Lorbek are really great in finishing post up shots.
It will be also interesting to see if Barcelona will try to face the offensive game of Real Madrid with switching on screens, the way Olympiakos did in the last three games of the play offs and created a lot of problems in ball movement and execution for the Madridistas. They have players that can do that like Sada, Oleson, Papanikolaou and Dorsey but this is doubtful in our opinion.
The key for Barca will be the performance of the players of the “2”and “3”positions. They have the advantage in the front court, so if they get enough help from the guys that will play in the perimeter, they will be the favorites to win the game. Another aspect that is important to mention is how much time Navarro will get in this game. He is not in the best condition right now, but he is a player that lives for this kind of games and maybe he is keeping his best for the Final Four.
Our choice is…
In our opinion this will be a very close semifinal between these two great basketball teams. In games like that, where opponents know each other very well, we have to pick the team which has a more stable playing philosophy, playing more with logic than with talent.
We will vote for Barcelona winning the game and going to the final.