By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
“Τhe way they lost, it was like a “dark cloud” was over them”, said Sofoklis Shortsanitis after the semifinal game against CSKA Moscow. The Russian powerhouse failed for the third straight final four for the second time under the guidance of coach Ettore Messina.
The cloud is more like a mist at this point, or a fog if you prefer. It may seems like an exaggeration, but nothing can be considered a given for CSKA Moscow at this point. The future of the club for next season is a mystery and no one can be sure for his position, not even the executives who are managing the budget of the owners.
Decisions will be made after the end of the season, which may came very soon, if CSKA loses the next game at Krasnodar by Lokomotiv Kuban and fail also in VTB. In that case this would be the first season since 2001-12 during which CSKA Moscow doesn’t win any trophy.
What we already know is that coach Messina will not stay on his bench and we have to wait for his heir and the owners’ decision in order to get a hint of the future.
At this point, however, we have the team’s list of contracts and we will try to figure out how you can reboot a club like CSKA in the summer.
The contracts
Four players are free agents. Those are Milos Teodosic, Vladimir Micov, Aleksei Zozulin and Andrei Vorontsevich. Two more players, Nenad Krstic and captain Viktor Khryapa, have a team option in their contracts. And six players have a contract for next season. To be more analytical, see the following list
ROSTER
Milos Teodosic: FA
Vladimir Micov: FA
Vitaly Fridzon: One season left in his contract and an option for one more.
Aaron Jackson: One season left in his contract.
Jeremy Pargo: One season left in his contract.
Nenad Krstic: An option for one more season.
Sonny Weems: One season left in his contract.
Aleksei Zozulin: FA
Andrey Voronchevich: FA
Sasha Kaun: One season left in his contract.
Viktor Khryapa: An option for one more season
Kyle Hines: One season left in his contract.
The Exit Poll of the players
Our feeling at this point, without being able to get into details, is that five players can be considered a lock for next season. Those are Fridzon, Jackson, Weems, Khryapa and Kaun.
However, the decisions of the next CSKA coach will be more than crucial. He will decide for the future of players like Pargo, Hines and Krstic. However we believe that Khryapa and Fridzon will stay. The same apply to Kaun, Jackson and Weems who were among the best players of the team during the season and had consistency in their game. Hines is the definition of a fighter, but his case is quite different.
The Exit Poll of the coach
It’s not a secret. CSKA’s top priority is David Blatt. There are one or two more names in the short list, but Blatt is the top target for many reasons. He has a contract for Maccabi for one more season, but also an opt out clause which he can use.
Our prediction is that coach Blatt will sign with CSKA, despite loving Maccabi! The reason? He is great professional and a really smart person. That makes it more than logical to leave Maccabi when he is considered a “God” by the team, in the peak of his glory! The same think happened with coach Ivkovic and Olympiacos during the summer of 2012. According to Russian newspaper “Sport-Express” coach Blatt confirmed that he is ready to negotiate with CSKA.
Reduction and the 10% in Europe
The biggest question of all it’s still next season’s budget for the team which spend 38 million euros this season and had the biggest budget in the salary cap-free Euroleague. The rumors are just too many at this point. We expect that less money will be given to the team by their owners, but we also expect that CSKA will have the biggest budget in Europe for the 2014-15 season even if there is 25%-30% reduction.
Real Madrid and Barcelona are not going to spend more than this season, Maccabi Tel Aviv during the last decade has a strict financial policy and the same apply in the last three season to the top two Greek teams. We don’t expect anyone to spend more than they are used to.
The money spend on players’ contract has reached its peak in Europe. In the meantime more and more US based agencies are trying to get into this market, because they want to find directly more opportunities for their players. There are many teams, not necessarily playing in Euroleague, and they can make more money, since agents are getting 4% of their deals in the States and usually 10% in Europe.
That’s one more reason to believe that even with a cut down budget, CSKA Moscow will be the “richest” team in Euroleague. However, we expect the team to be more careful in its picking and a harder negotiator. And that creates a tricky balance. CSKA Moscow can’t have the budget of Maccabi Tel Aviv, Olympiacos and Panathinaikos and remain a Euroleague contender. At least this can’t be done in a summer. In even if CSKA gets to that point, it will still have to pay more in order to get a player which is also a target of other contenders. The winter in Moscow is really cold…