By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
The last week of the Euroleague is dangerous to bet on games which involve teams with real motivation. But we trust Unics and Neptunas and we bet that they will qualify to the Top 16 and on the way help us win.
The match which gathers the interest of every Euroleague fan is the Russian derby, Nizhny vs Unics Kazan. The hosts beat Efes and have the chance to win this home game and qualify. But usually the “do-or-die” games are decided by the stars and the experienced players. And Unics has plenty of them. Nihzny will fight but probably will lose by more than 3 points. Moreover it’s expected that both teams will not score more than 149,5 points. Lately they don’t use to play up tempo and it’s safe to bet on under.
Valencia was awful and lost last week any hope to compete for one ticket to the Top 16. The Spanish team will fight from now on to secure its place to the Copa del Rey. So, the game against Neptunas is meaningless for the players of Perasovic. The Lithuanians want desperately to win because in that case they will qualify to the Top 16. So, we bet on them and we are safe even if they lose by less than 4 points.
Once again we will trust CSKA’s offense at home. The Russians come from a low scoring game on the road vs Unicaja but at home they scored in five games in row more than 88 points. Also the Euroleague they scored in every game more than 95 points. The line is to the 89,5 points. Isn’t it a gift?
Our last tip has to do with the efficiency of Crvena Zvezda on defense. The Serbians are expected to control the game against Laboral and the visitors score a lot only when they run in the open court. That’s difficult in Belgrade, so probably the total points will not be more than 153.
The betting tips
CSKA-Limoges CSKA over 89,5 points
@William Hill 1,85
Valencia-Neptunas (+4,5) 2
@Unibet 1,91
Nizhny-Unics (+3) 2
@Ladbrokes 1,85
Nizhny-Unics Under 149,5 points
@Bet365 1,90
Crvena Zvezda-Laboral 153 points
@Coral 1,91