By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Euroleague returns after a break of one week and we bet on Fenerbahce’s offense, Olympiacos’ & Unicaja’s defense and on the easy victory of Barcelona.
The defense of Nizhny and Milano are the worst in the Top 16. The Italians allow 84.4 points per game and the Russians 83.9. Both pay too much attention in the offense and most of their shots are made before the 16″ mark. So, we bet on the over option, because the line is low.
On the contrary, Maccabi has been transformed during the Top 16 into an excellent defensive team allowing 75,7 points per game. Also, Panathinaikos is the third best defensive team allowing 71,7 points. Moreover, the Greens score 69 points per game on the road. So, we bet on Under.
Barcelona wants desperately the win over Alba to secure a place in the playoffs. The Germans will play without two of their best players and for sure nobody can cover the absences of McLean and Hammonds. The handicap is huge but the Catalans can prevail with an even bigger margin.
Olympiacos has the best defense in the Euroleague (70,4 ppg) and Unicaja likes also low tempo basketball (71 possessions per game). The line of the 151,5 points in total is low but most probably both teams will not score more.
Finally, CSKA faces Fenerbahce in a tough game and has a – small – advantage. But it’s odd that the handicap is too high. We estimate that Fenerbahce will fight and it’s expected to win or lose by less than 9 points. Still it’s safer to bet that the visitors will score more than 74,5 points. Fenerbahce scored more than the line in 14 of its 17 games so far. CSKA isn’t famous for its defense and we bet on the Turkish team.
The betting tips
Nizhny-Milano Over 160 points
@Bet365 1,90
Maccabi–Panathinaikos Under 150,5 points
@William Hill 1,85
CSKA-Fenerbahce Fenerbahce Over 74,5 points
@Stoiximan 1,85
Barcelona-Alba (+14,5) 1
@Coral 1,91
Olympiacos-Unicaja Under 151,5 points
@SBO bet 1,92