By Panos Katsiroumpas/ info@eurohoops.net
We’ve reached the moment we’ve all been waiting for. After a sensational Top 16, the time has come to take a look at the big knockout battles that will take 4 out of the 8 teams to the Promise Land, or else, the Final Four in Madrid. Eurohoops, and more specifically, the Magnifying Glass, will try to analyze the 4 pairs, all the key points and the players “barometers” in these four games.
CSKA Moscow against Panathinaikos in a battle with clear favorites and outsiders. The Russians are one of the best offensive teams, with a good distribution of the ball in offense – especially in the 1st round of the Top 16 they were impressive in this aspect of their game. They dealt with several injuries that forced them to have a short line-up, even though in the last few games they seem to be changing their approach with the return of Kirilenko and Weems making them a more defensive team with tall bodies. Panathinaikos on the other hand, has experienced scary ups and downs during the season with some good games but also some rather problematic ones, most of which were away from home. The greens have a clear deficiency in the small forward position, while they are clearly looking for a solution in the center position mostly in the defensive part.
Key points
CSKA’s size. In the last few games the Russians have changed their philosophy, especially after appearing defensively vulnerable in some games. With Kirilenko’s presence they add more athleticism, size and height to their team. With the Russian star in the 3 position, the Russians got stronger in getting rebounds but also in the defensive part as a whole, whether we’re talking about switches or rotating. Panathinaikos on the other hand, only has Giankovits for the 3 position, and other than that, they cannot compete with the tall figures of the Russians, unless we see a line-up that includes Fotsis in 3.
Pace. CSKA is a team that looks for the open court, scores more than 85 points per game, while in many possessions they seek immediate executions with Teodosic on the screen or after a pass along the baseline on the weak side of the defense. If the Russians get into a momentum, open up the game and push the score high, it’s almost impossible for Panathinaikos to keep up.
Containing Teodosic and De Colo. The two of them had an awesome Top 16 especially in the offensive part, thrashing almost any defensive systems that they encountered. Both of them can set up plays for themselves, while they make use of their teammates in the best possible way. In the Top 16 the two of them had 30 points and 10 assists per game, which means a contribution in more than 50% of their team’s total points.
Rebounds and execution. If the greens want to stand a chance, aside from controlling the pace, they have to control the rebounds and execute three-pointers with a percentage that exceeds 40%. The Russians are one of the best teams when it comes to rebounds and the greens have to stop their consecutive offenses. They also have to be accurate in their shooting along the perimeter. In all their big wins and appearances they scored with good percentages and in a high frequency from the three-point line.
Players “Barometers”
Teodosic and Kirilenko
The first one is the ultimate barometer. With him on a good day CSKA doesn’t lose. While he’s feeling good and hot he can thrash any defense, but if he gets muddled he can make many errors and become a negative protagonist. For Krilenko, Itoudis changed the whole playing style of his team. He can be a threat from the perimeter but also from the post in offense, he can cover the entire court, he’s amazing at the rim and in defense he can mark anyone. If he adapts 100% he takes his team to another level.
Diamantidis and Giankovits
Diamantidis is the natural leader of his team and apart from the collective defense and creative aspects, he has to execute accurately as well. Also, he has to find a way to interfere with Teodosic’s or Weems’ concentration, depending on who he’ll be called to mark in defense. Giankovits had the misfortune of being the only small forward against CSKA’s full line of forwards. They’ll nail him in defense, an aspect of his game in which he’s going to have to outdo himself, while he also has to be accurate in offense as well, since many of the greens’ plays end up in his hands shooting the ball.
Prediction
CSKA has a clear advantage in all areas and will probably get the qualification in 3 or 4 games. We’d say 3-0 or 3-1 for the Russians.