By Eurohoops team / info@eurohoops.net
This week, the EuroLeague Experts Round Table features Euroleague Basketball Legend Theodoros Papaloukas; Luca Chiabotti, the former basketball expert-in-residence at La Gazzetta dello Sport in Italy; Patrick Reichelt, sports editor for Munchner Merkur; Alex Madrid of Eurohoops Spain; and Frank Lawlor, Editorial Director of Euroleague Basketball.
They were called to make their picks on the team in a must-win situation for Round 25, the winner between Fenerbahce and Real Madrid, as well as on which, if any, stats leader right now could lose his top spot by the end of the season.
Per euroleague.net:
Which team do you most consider to be in a must-win situation for its Round 25 game?
Theo Papaloukas
“There are many crucial games and there are many teams that are in need of big wins. Since we’re talking about a must-win situation, I’m going to choose AX Armani Exchange Milan against Khimki Moscow Region. It’s a very crucial battle. With a win, they hold on to their position in the top eight and continue to control their destiny. A loss – at home, in fact – to Khimki is going to be a big problem. Because the two teams will then have the same record, Milan will have lost twice to Khimki and find itself out of the top eight at a time when Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul is pressing on for a place in the playoffs.”
Luca Chiabotti
“AX Armani Exchange Milan. Milan has lost five of the last six games, including the home game with Berlin. And in the last weekend, Milan failed in the Italian Cup. If Ettore Messina’s team lose this home game against Khimki, its chances of playing in the playoffs will drastically decrease because Milan will be overtaken by Khimki (the Russian team would be 2-0 in the matchup) and will come out of the first eight places. But not only this: in the race for the playoffs, Milan is 0-1 against Crvena Zvezda (and will play in Belgrade the return game) and Olympiacos (Milan lost by 21 points in Piraeus). So, Milan must win absolutely the game with Khimki. Losing would cost Milan more than just one position in the standings.”
Patrick Reichelt
“The answer could be Baskonia, as they play direct neighbor Zalgiris, which you should beat at home. But my choice is Fenerbahce. After a mainly disappointing season, they want not only to jump into the playoff spots. They want to demonstrate that they are still ready for the really big goals. But for that, you have to beat the really big opponents and a win like that is still missing. Now they face Real at home.”
Alex Madrid
“Two teams involved in the playoff race face each other this week in a game that could mark their future in the competition. It is true that during this round several teams could lose almost any chance to make the postseason, but both AX Armani Exchange Milan and Khimki Moscow Region need the victory. After an impressive start, Italians and Russians have slowed down and now are definitely struggling to get wins. Defeating a direct rival at this point in the season would be massive for either of them.”
Frank Lawlor
“Home teams have the most pressure to win now, and Baskonia has to win at Buesa Arena to survive this playoffs race, which makes its tie-breaking game with Zalgiris a huge opportunity. Remember, it would count double since Baskonia won in Kaunas to open the season, which seems like eons ago for this team, considering all its injuries since then. Alas, Zalgiris has risen because of togetherness and Baskonia must play shorthanded and rely on new faces. That’s no easy task, but Baskonia needs this win desperately to avoid possibly falling three victories behind the eighth and final playoff spot with nine games left to play.”
Which, if any, stats leader right now could lose his top spot by the end of the season?
Theo Papaloukas
“I’d say that the most probable scenario is that we won’t have any changes with any of the stats leaders in the main categories, so my answer is none of them. Nick Calathes in assists, Walter Tavares in blocks, Nikola Milutinov in rebounds, are going to be hard to surpass. One possibility that I see is that, because of Shane Larkin’s injury, either Alexey Shved or Mike James, who are called upon to lead their teams to the playoffs, will go toe-to-toe with him in scoring until the end, if he doesn’t get into a good rhythm when he returns. In any case, he’s my MVP for this season.”
Luca Chiabotti
“There is a fantastic race at the top of the scoring leaders. The Alphonso Ford Trophy is too close to call now: Shane Larkin and Mike James are today divided by a single point after 24 rounds and Alexey Shved is second by 0.7 points per game. I think that at the end of the day, Shane Larkin will crown his spectacular season with the scoring title, but he is also the only leader really in peril. Not since 2012 (McCalebb-Spanoulis) has the race for first place in scoring been so close and this year there are three superstars running for the trophy. Fantastic!”
Patrick Reichelt
“I could imagine that Shane Larkin drops down a bit. Now he is injured and that can take some of his rhythm. And I think that the comfortable situation with three wins ahead of biggest rival Real Madrid can and will take the fire out of the Anadolu game. Probably also out of Larkin’s game.”
Alex Madrid
“If Anadolu Efes continues with its impressive run, I guess soon or later Coach Ergin Ataman will start to rest his star, Shane Larkin. In this context, the point guard may lower his extraordinary scoring averages (21.96 ppg), while the performances from players like Alexey Shved (21.27 ppg) or Mike James (21.00 ppg) will be important until the last round of the regular season.”
Frank Lawlor
“The most volatile category is three-point shooting accuracy, where ALBA’s Niels Giffey was ahead much of the season until making just 5 of his last 22 shots from the arc. Leo Westermann of Fenerbahce is the leader now, shooting 52.8%, but remarkably, eight more players are at 50.0% or better. Which one of those could pass him? I’ll guess Thomas Walkup, who is at 54.1% over the last 16 games. He seems to be choosing his shots consistently well enough to keep rising up the ranks.”