The race to the playoffs is ON!

By John Rammas/ irammas@eurohoops.net

It was in Round 29 when FC Barcelona became the first team to qualify for the playoffs. Two rounds later, the teams that have qualified for the playoffs remain one.

With another three rounds to go for the completion of the regular season, plus one (postponed) game for CSKA Moscow and Zenit St Petersburg, Eurohoops outlines how things stand for ten teams in one of the most shocking finales in the history of the EuroLeague, and not only with the existing format (2016-present).

2. CSKA MOSCOW 20-10

Despite having a negative record in 2021 (6-7), CSKA had toiled earlier in the season so that they could be in the top four consistently since Round 8, having a game less compared to almost all the teams that trail behind them. They’re looking like the favorites to finish in second place.

• @ Zenit St Petersburg, March 30, Round 32: It’s the toughest of the games that CSKA still has to play until the end, since for Zenit it’s more important in terms of their final placement in the rankings. In the first game between them, CSKA won 83-65 in Moscow.
• vs. Khimki Moscow Region, April 2, Round 33: Even though Khimki is looking more competitive in recent games, CSKA will most likely beat them the second time, too (87-96 in the first round).
• vs. LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne, April 8, Round 34: Nothing will make any difference in terms of placement for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne, however, they will want to wrap up their commitments in the EuroLeague with a win and they can be dangerous. Even so, CSKA still has the upper hand for the second round (78-87 in the first round).
• vs. Panathinaikos OPAP Athens, April 14, rescheduled from Round 25: The game of Round 25 will drop the curtain of the regular season in the EuroLeague and until then, Panathinaikos OPAP Athens, who don’t really have anything to gain in terms of their placement, will have turned their attention on their domestic commitments. CSKA won 83-89 in Athens.

3. ANADOLU EFES ISTANBUL 20-11

Anadolu Efes Istanbul are having an impressive second phase (12-2) and not only have they stabilized their place in the top eight, but it’s also very possible they will make the playoffs with home-court advantage. They will have to continue playing at the same level since all their games until the end are away from Istanbul, while they can’t control almost any of the possible ties with the teams that are chasing after them.

• @ Real Madrid, March 30, Round 32: It’s the first of the three difficult games that Efes has left until the end, as Real Madrid are in a tough spot ahead of the playoffs and are burning for the win. Real won their first game by 65-73 in Istanbul.
• @ TD Systems Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz, April 1, Round 33: TD Systems Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are trying to make the playoffs and are expected to be an extremely tough opponent. To be precise, a lot tougher than they were in the first round, when in fact Baskonia won 59-77 in Istanbul.
• @ AX Armani Exchange Milan, April 9, Round 34: AX Armani Exchange Milan is struggling to hold on to a place in the top four and this one is going to be like a playoff game. A possible cover of the thre-point deficit of the first round (Milan won 69-72 in Istanbul) could have multiple benefits for Efes.

4. AX ARMANI EXCHANGE MILAN 19-12

Milan is coming off back-to-back defeats and is barely holding onto its place in the top four. For the rest of the schedule, Milan has two trips to difficult home courts and a tough game in Milan, but they can come through if they perform based on the capability of their roster.

• @ Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade, March 30, Round 32: Their home record may not be the best possible (5-10), however Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade are always more dangerous at home. A serious Milan team can respond to the defeat that Zvezda got in Milan (79-87).
• @ Panathinaikos OPAP Athens, April 1, Round 33: Panathinaikos is always Panathinaikos, especially at the OAKA Altion, but their motivation (or lack thereof) in terms of their final ranking may prevail over prestige in this particular case. After all, the Greens already won in Milan (77-80).
• vs. Anadolu Efes Istanbul, April 9, Round 34: The regular season could not come to a close for Milan with a tougher opponent than Efes, although the Italian team did prevail in Istanbul (69-72).

5. FC BAYERN MUNICH 19-12

FC Bayern Munich is by far the pleasant surprise of the season and it’s telling that they’ve been consistently in the top eight since Round 2. The fact that the first two of the three games they still have to play until the end are in Munich may allow them to continue accordingly, since they are one of the strongest teams at home (12-3).

• vs. Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul, March 30, Round 32: Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul has been in excellent form in recent months but Bayern, who won in Istanbul (71-75), will have the upper hand in Munich.
• vs. Zalgiris Kaunas, April 1, Round 33: A lot of defeats have piled up for Zalgiris Kaunas lately and it is very likely that Bayern will add yet another one. The first game in Kaunas was close, but in favor of Zalgiris (74-73).
• @ FC Barcelona, April 9, Round 34: Bayern is one of only five teams to have beaten Barcelona (90-77 in Munich). In Barcelona things will be much more difficult.

6. FENERBAHCE BEKO ISTANBUL 19-12

Up until Round 22, Fenerbahce had forgotten what the playoff positions looked like, but with a 14-2 record since the end of 2020, the Turkish powerhouse now has a chance of finishing in the top four. A difficult schedule against teams from first to seventh place in the rankings does not guarantee anything at this point in the regular season, however.

• @ FC Bayern Munich, March 30, Round 32: Fenerbahce is called to go against the rule that has had Bayern winning most games in Munich (12-3). If they do that by more than 4 points (after losing 71-75 at home in their first game) it would be ideal for Fenerbahce.
• vs. FC Barcelona, April 2, Round 33: Its defeat in Barcelona (97-55) has gone down in the history books as one of the biggest in Fenerbahce’s history. In Istanbul, payback by even… half a point would be enough for them.
• vs. Real Madrid, April 8, Round 34: The days when they suffered defeats like the one of the first bout in Madrid (94-74) are in the past for Fenerbahce and they may have the opportunity to hurt Madrid more than they themselves were hurt then.

7. REAL MADRID 18-13

Up until Round 26, Madrid was looking immovable from the top four, but with three defeats in five games since then, they are in danger of being left out of the positions that lead to the playoffs. A look at the games they have left, in combination with their absences, is enough to realize just how real that danger is.

• vs. Anadolu Efes Istanbul, March 30, Round 32: It is perhaps the toughest game they have left until the end, since it will either lift them higher in the rankings and in terms of their mentality, or it will pull them down on every level and the walls will continue closing in. However, Real beat Efes 65-73 in Istanbul.
• vs. Olympiacos Piraeus, April 2, Round 33: Olympiacos Piraeus have been mathematically disqualified from the playoffs but in recent games they have shown that they’re capable of anything. A full Madrid team took a difficult road win in the first round (82-86 OT).
• @ Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul, April 8, Round 34: The game in Istanbul will definitely be difficult for Madrid, but the importance of its outcome will be determined by the results of the previous two. The same goes for Fenerbahce, whom Real had beaten easily in Madrid (94-74).

8. ZENIT ST PETERSBURG 17-13

Zenit are more effective away (10-7) than they are at home (7-6) but this may change by the end of the regular season. Whether difficult or less difficult, all four of the games they have left are in St Petersburg and they seem to be holding their fortune in their own hands.

• vs. CSKA Moscow, March 30, Round 32: Revenge for the defeat by 18 points in Moscow (83-65) is the last thing Zenit is looking for against CSKA. Winning by even… half a point will have exactly the same value at this point in time.
• vs. LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne, April 2, Round 33: ASVEL has no motivation in terms of their placement in the rankings, nor do they look strong away from home, and Zenit have what it takes to sweep the French club after winning 53-66 in Villeurbanne earlier in the season.
• vs. Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv, April 9, Round 34: The lack of interest in terms of their final ranking does not matter for a team of Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv’s caliber, something they proved recently in Kaunas. Zenit cannot afford to relax, not even for a moment, and going two-for-two against Maccabi is a must after having won72-78 in Tel Aviv.
• vs. Panathinaikos OPAP Athens, April 12, rescheduled from Round 6: This game will be played after the rest of the teams will have completed their commitments for the regular season. Not until then will Zenit know what they want or need to do against a Panathinaikos team that is indifferent in terms of final placements but which is always dangerous.

9. TD SYSTEMS BASKONIA VITORIA-GASTEIZ 17-14

Nine games ago Baskonia seemed to be out of the running for a place in the playoffs. Eight wins later, they’ve put so much pressure on the teams that are ahead of them that some are in danger of collapsing under it. The first two of the games they have left will decide how much longer this situation can be maintained before a possible do-or-die game follows to end the regular season.

• @Panathinaikos OPAP Athens, March 30, Round 32: Baskonia beat Panathinaikos with relative ease in Vitoria (93-72) but at the OAKA Altion the degree of difficulty is expected to be much higher.
• vs. Anadolu Efes Istanbul, April 1, Round 33: Baskonia’s win over Efes in Istanbul (59-77) remains one of the most impressive results of the season in the EuroLeague. The form both teams are in means anything is possible in the game in Vitoria.
• @ Valencia Basket, April 8, Round 34: At this particular moment, the game in Valencia seems like a final for both teams. It remains to be seen whether the situation will be the same until then.

10. VALENCIA BASKET 17-14

With six wins in the last eight games Valencia Basket is challenging to win back a place in the top eight, which the team had held consistently until Round 18. The momentum is on their side but their opponents in the upcoming double-round week are more dangerous than they seem, regardless of being eliminated already.

• vs. Olympiacos Piraeus, March 32, Round 32: Valencia won the first round (85-96) but the fact that Olympiacos have the ability to shape the playoffs may be a greater motivation than the prestige of a team that has three EuroLeague trophies.
• @ ALBA Berlin, April 2, Round 33: Valencia knows that it can’t afford to lose a second time to a team that does not have the same goals as them (92-100 in the first round). ALBA Berlin have won just one of their last six games in Berlin.
• vs. TD Systems Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz, April 8, Round 34: Even though it’s still early, both Valencia and Baskonia are hoping they will still be motivated for their final ranking by the time they play against each other for the second time (71-70 in Vitoria).

11. ZALGIRIS KAUNAS

Zalgiris’s hopes are purely mathematical, yet they have nothing to lose, while their schedule until the end includes a game that can tip the balance ahead of the playoffs.

• vs. ALBA Berlin, March 30, Round 32: Zalgiris has the opportunity to return to victories after four consecutive defeats and, at the same time, to get a sweep against ALBA (71-74 in Berlin).
• @ FC Bayern Munich, March 1, Round 33: Marius Grigonis decided the game in Kaunas (74-73) with a game-winning buzzer-beater that is still hurting Bayern. Zalgiris will try to hurt them again in Munich.
• vs. Panathinaikos OPAP Athens, April 8, Round 34: The game against Panathinaikos will roll the end credits for Zalgiris in the regular season and the motivation to win the last game of the season is great in itself.

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