By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
After the win of Panathinaikos over CSKA Moscow, Real Madrid (22-7) secured the top spot of the final standings, CSKA Moscow (21-8) is second and Olympiacos (19-10) is also third no matter what.
And here’s where things gets interesting. At this moment Panathinaikos has a 18-10 record – and Olympiacos the tie breaking advantage – while Baskonia, Anadolu Efes and Fenerbahce are tied at 17-12. In the last round Fenerbahce is hosting Barcelona, Baskonia is hosting Zalgiris Kaunas, Panathinaikos is playing on the road against Maccabi Tel Aviv and Anadolu Efes also on the road against Real Madrid.
However neither Barca, Zalgiris, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Real Madrid have any motivation in order to win, except pride. To be exact if Anadolu Efes beats Real Madrid and Baskonia beats Zalgiris, then Fenerbahce will finish the regular season on the seventh spot and will face CSKA Moscow in the playoffs.
Panathinaikos will not finish the regular season at the fourth spot only if they can’t beat Maccabi Tel Aviv and also Fenerbahce gets the win, while Baskonia and Anadolu Efes are defeated. In that case Fenerbahce will be fourth and Panathinaikos will be fifth. Panathinaikos can end up in the sixth position and face Olympiacos in the playoffs only if Fenerbahce and Anadolu Efes get their wins, while the Greens and Baskonia lose their games. This scenario will give to Fenerbahce the fourth spot and to Anadolu Efes the fifth.
Fenerbahce can end up everywhere from the fourth to the eighth position of the final standings. The best case scenario for them will be to beat Barcelona and also for Panathinakos, Baskonia and Anadolu Efes to lose. In that case they will end up fourth. The worst case scenario for them is the following: If Crvena Zvezda beats Darussafaka, Zalgiris prevails over Baskonia, Anadolu Efes beats Real Madrid and Fenerbahce gets beaten by Barcelona, then the team of coach Obradovic will end up eighth. The most probably scenario, that means every three or four way tie that includes Baskonia will push them either to the sixth or the seventh position.
Baskonia can’t get the fourth spot and may end up being from fifth to eighth. The Basques have beaten twice Fenerbahce so they have the advantage over them in any possible three or four way tie, but not against Panathinaikos, as the Greens prevailed two times against Baskonia. That’s why the team of coach Sito Alonso can’t finish fourth. The most possible position for them is the fifth, however if Zvezda beats Darussafaka, Baskonia is defeated by Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes beats Real Madrid and Fenerbahce beats Barcelona, then the Basques will finish eighth.
Anadolu Efes will also finish between the fifth and the seventh spot, because they have the tie breaking advantage over Crvena Zvezda. In order to finish fifth, they have to beat Real Madrid and Fenerbahce has to be beaten by Barcelona. If however there’s a three way tie with them, Baskonia and Fenerbahce, then they will probably end up in the seventh spot, because of Baskonia’s two wins over Fenerbahce.
Crvena Zvezda can end up in the seventh place and push Baskonia to the eighth if they beat Darussafaka, Baskonia is defeated by Zalgiris, Anadolu Efes beats Real Madrid and Fenerbahce beats Barcelona. The Serbs can also push Fenerbahce to the eighth spot if they beat Darussafaka, Zalgiris prevails over Baskonia, Anadolu Efes beats Real Madrid and Fenerbahce gets beaten by Barcelona. In any other scenario Zvezda will be eighth, or Darussafaka Dogus will get the last playoffs spot if they beat the Serbs in the game between them at Istanbul.