By Eurohoops team/ info@eurohoops.net
Welcome back to the Experts Round Table, where we ask a variety of the most knowledgeable Turkish Airlines EuroLeague followers across the continent their opinions on the topics of the day. This week’s panel includes Dusan Ivkovic, a two-time EuroLeague champion coach and and Euroleague Basketball Legend; Arale Weisberg of Israeli website Walla and commentator on Israel radio Kan; Vladimir Stankovic, veteran journalist and longtime EuroLeague.net collaborator; Lefteris Moutis of Eurohoops; and Javier Gancedo, EuroLeague Fantasy Challenge guru and Editorial Senior Manager for EuroLeague.net. Check out their opinions on three key questions!
1. Which one of the six would-be qualifiers do you consider most likely to survive Round 30 and reach the playoffs?
Dusan Ivkovic
“First, the fact that six teams are fighting for three playoff spots until the last game proves that this competition system works… Drama until the end! I think Panathinaikos has its qualification practically assured. They have to win at home against Buducnost, which has lost its last nine games.”
Arale Weisberg
“I’d say Panathinaikos. While most of the other teams in the race have to face tough opponents in higher positions, PAO is back in OAKA against Buducnost, which is concerned with its own trouble in the Adriatic League semifinals. As heartbreaking as Rudy’s buzzer-beater was, no major damage was suffered by the Greens, since Baskonia surprisingly lost at home to Anadolu Efes the following night. Rick Pitino’s truly impressive comeback must end up in the playoffs and with some luck, Fernandez and Real Madrid will be back in Athens later this month.”
Vladimir Stankovic
“I think Panathinaikos has it easiest. They are playing at home against the next-to-last team, which has more to worry about in the Adriatic League playoffs than in this last EuroLeague game.”
Lefteris Moutis
“In theory, Panathinaikos OPAP Athens has the least difficult game, at home against Buducnost VOLI Podgorica, and knows that if they win they will qualify for the playoffs. The Greens missed the chance to qualify from the previous round because of Rudy Fernandez’s crazy three-pointer, but now they will not let the opportunity slip from their hands.”
Javier Gancedo
“Panathinaikos only depends on its own result to qualify and plays at home in front of what I am sure will be an exceptional basketball atmosphere in Athens. Panathinaikos faces Buducnost, which is eliminated and on a nine-game losing streak. Buducnost faces Game 3 of the Adriatic League semifinals on Sunday, too. Panathinaikos is the clear favorite to make it to the playoffs; it will be sixth if it wins and Baskonia loses or seventh if both teams win. Panathinaikos’s only loss in the last seven games came on a buzzer-beater, too.”
2. Which one of the six would-be qualifiers do you consider the second most likely to survive Round 30 and reach the playoffs?
Dusan Ivkovic
“It’s difficult to predict. It seems to me that Zalgiris, with its last victory in Piraeus, has taken a big step toward the playoffs. They must win in Madrid, which is difficult but not impossible. It seems to me Zalgiris can qualify even if it loses. If they advance – and I think they will – they’ll match their great work of last season. Great work by Coach Sarunas Jasikevicius and his players.”
Arale Weisberg
“Olympiacos. The Greek powerhouse has looked lost the last couple of months and perhaps the most troubling thing about their latest home loss to Zalgiris was evident in the stands; Only 9,000 fans attended a decisive game at Peace and Friendship Stadium. I think that in a strange way, Vassilis Spanoulis’s injury might help Olympiacos in the short term. The burden of his playing time discussions will be taken off of David Blatt’s shoulders and other players will have to step up in this “Spanoulis moment.” The club tradition, the experience of the Israeli coach and his players, plus the fact that they face Darussafaka, with a bit of luck from the other games, will be enough for the Reds to squeeze into the top eight.”
Vladimir Stankovic
“Milan does not depend on itself. Baskonia, on the other hand, has everything in its hands. Should it win, Baskonia finishes sixth. The problem is they play on CSKA‘s court, where few visitors win. But Baskonia can lose and still qualify, thanks to its tiebreak advantages with Milan, Panathinaikos and Maccabi. They need four things to happen to miss the playoffs.”
Lefteris Moutis
“In most scenarios, KIROLBET Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz look like it has an advantage, but a win at CSKA Moscow is always a big ask no matter how secure the Russian team is in terms of the standings. CSKA has lost only once in the last 11 games, so Baskonia will have to wait for the rest of the results in order to make sure of their spot in the playoffs. However, they have an advantage in the tiebreaks with all the other teams aside from Olympiacos Piraeus, so they will probably qualify, as the task of the other teams is very tough.”
Javier Gancedo
“Baskonia also qualifies with a win, so not depending on anyone else’s scores gives the Spanish powerhouse a plus. Of course, it is never easy to beat CSKA in the Russian capital; indeed, Baskonia is 1-14 against CSKA in Moscow, having only won there in the 2005 Final Four semifinals. Baskonia has a lot of chances to qualify if it loses due to its good tiebreak situation, so don’t be surprised to see Baskonia in the playoffs and fighting to get to the Final Four on its home court, Fernando Buesa Arena.”
3. Which one of the six would-be qualifiers do you consider the third most likely to survive Round 30 and reach the playoffs?
Dusan Ivkovic
“Even more difficult. Baskonia lost its match-ball against Efes at home, but has the advantage over the others. Maccabi has few options and Olympiacos is not in a much better situation. Milan doesn’t depend on itself.”
Arale Weisberg
“Milan. It’s a complete gamble, based on a hunch, and it might even come as a surprise looking at Olimpia’s three-game losing streak, yet I honestly believe that there is something special in this year’s team. The truth is, I considered them as a possible Final Four Cinderella prior to Arturas Gudaitis’s injury. Efes has proven to stay competitive even after locking up fourth place, but my gut tells me that Milan will get the crucial win in Istanbul. Wishful thinking? Possibly, it’s just too sad to imagine the playoffs without Mike James. Coach Simone Pianigiani was Ergin Ataman’s assistant back in the good old Montepaschi Siena days, but he beat him in their last four meetings since 2010. What are friends for?”
Vladimir Stankovic
“It’s complicated. Zalgiris or Olympiacos. I tend towards Olympiacos above all because of its 2-0 record against Baskonia in their games. That can be a big advantage in the case of a double- or triple-tie, something that is very probable.”
Lefteris Moutis
“If we take a cold hard look at the schedule of the other four teams that are after the qualification, we see that Olympiacos has a clear edge. Even though they’re not in form, they can overpower Darussafaka Tekfen Istanbul at home and reach 15 wins. On the contrary, all of the remaining three teams that are playing away from home against teams from the top four – Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv against Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul, Zalgiris Kaunas against Real Madrid and AX Armani Exchange Olimpia Milan against Anadolu Efes Istanbul; it looks like they are not going to make it.”
Javier Gancedo
“I am going to say Olympiacos. It doesn’t have many chances to advance, mathematically, but things get much better for the Reds if they beat Darussafaka, which is mandatory; Anadolu Efes defeats Milan and archrival Panathinaikos downs Buducnost. In that case, Olympiacos will have the best chances to advance… unless Zalgiris beats Real Madrid in the Spanish capital. Baskonia, Milan, Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv and Zalgiris all play on the road against the top four teams in the standings. The bad news for Olympiacos is all of them know their ranking already. The good news is that CSKA, Fenerbahce, Efes and Madrid all won on the road in Round 29 in very similar circumstances. Everyone wants to finish the regular season with a win and get a good rhythm for the playoffs – and that works in Olympiacos’s favor.”
Source: EuroLeague