Βy Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
The present, what we are living, is always very important. But the same goes for the future too. The Euroleague and European basketball in general, have made many steps forward in the last 15 years. The Euroleague is recognized as the second best league of clubs in the world after the NBA and Europe as the best destination for American players in order to have a career if they cannot find enough room in the NBA.
If we collect all of the information and deploy all the facts, we come to the conclusion that in 2-3 years from now, the European market and the Euroleague will receive blows from every direction. More and more Europeans will end up in the NBA and even from younger ages too. More and more Americans that according to today’s standards end up in Europe, will find work in the NBA. Those that won’t, will possibly prefer the Chinese league and not the European ones…
The facts in Europe
The leagues have been hit by the economic crisis – the ACB is an obvious example – and the financial situation of the championships shows consistent downward trends. In the BBL the numbers are on the rise because they started from the bottom and because it is the only league and team system in advanced Europe where the approach is strictly based on income – expenditure and the budgets are determined by how much money goes into the cash registers of the clubs.
The only championship that is going against the current is the TBL. Big budgets, expensive signings, a lot of expensive rosters, even in teams that have as their goal to get in the playoffs. The budgets and the money that is going around in Turkey do not derive from the teams’ revenues. They are mostly a product of sponsorships and companies that make contracts with the clubs. This means that we cannot anticipate the duration of the “financial spring” of the league.
The development of and investments in the rosters are not an a result of income and financial planning, but depend entirely on the whims of the company owners that are outside of sports and on how well these investments will stand financially in the future.
Only a few teams invest in arenas – Fenerbahce is the latest example – and infrastructure. In areas where they can steadily increase the revenues of the anonymous companies – teams and render themselves independent and homegrown. This means that an improvement is not expected throughout Europe in the financial part that determines everything. Unless the international European crisis is suddenly reversed in Europe. Which is unlikely.
The big market
There is no player, not even a non-American, that doesn’t dream of playing and making it in the NBA. The room, though, is predetermined when the season gets under away and while it progresses. Fifteen contracts in 30 teams. What will change? Not the available total spots on the rosters, but the financial status. Starting with the 2015/6 season the Salary Cap and the maximum limit over which the luxury tax will keep increasing more and more.
Until 2020 everything suggests that there is a possibility of an increase from 80% up to 100% compared to the numbers that were agreed upon in the collective agreement between NBA and NBPA (Players union) in 2012. The players are determined, in 2017 there is the Opt Out from their side in the 10th agreement and it is a given that the players are going to use that in order to have a very hard negotiation. The conclusion? All of the types of contracts in the NBA will have increased earnings and there is going to be a lot more money in a few years from now for the Free Agents.
Europeans that stayed in Europe for the extra money will no longer have a reason to keep playing here and a lot of Americans that left their home country to make a fortune in Europe will clearly have a lot of added financial opportunities in the USA.
The collateral damage
The “beast” that is the NBA market moves at another speed compared to Europe – Jordi Bertomeu admitted as much in a recent statement on Eurohoops – and it is the big attraction that will create a drop in the competitive quality of the Euroleague and of national leagues.
Add the CBA to the overall picture. The Chinese league that is growing all the time is already the second highest consolidated market in the world after the NBA and offers – mostly to Americans – the following important thing: 5-month contracts with a lot more money than what they earn in Europe in 10 months.
In China the season is a lot shorter in duration and clearly less painstaking. They offer the players a huge monthly salary compared to what they can get in the Euroleague and once they have finished with their obligations in the CBA (February) the capability to seek a contract for the remainder of the season either in the NBA or the Euroleague. This in a time when the European clubs that offer big contracts are declining and the teams in China that offer “gold” for 5 months of basketball without very high expectations or a lot of pressure are increasing.
Amidst all of this, unity is also threatened
Conclusion: The European market and the Euroleague have not felt it keenly yet but in the next few years they will be under a lot of pressure. Many direct and collateral damages, and this in a time when the Euroleague and FIBA (that controls 100% FIBA Europe), have their knives out.
European basketball has to be absolutely united in order to fight and come out in one piece and competitive opposite the markets of USA and China that are threatening it with (financial) decline, and at this point in time exactly the opposite is happening.