By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
All the teams that rely on their defense have more chances of winning. They are more stable and more predictable in terms of betting as well. This is why this week Eurohoops.net again relies on the defenses of Olympiacos, Fenerbahce and Khimki.
Olympiacos has the second best defense in the Euroleague and in the game against Efes in Istanbul they will definitely try to interrupt the rhythm and get the win by means of a slow-paced game. Efes is a team with a similar philosophy and the total number of points scored will not exceed the 151,5 threshold.
Cedevita is coming from two big away wins over Milan and Efes, and now has aspirations of qualifying to the next phase. However, their quality isn’t such as to win a third consecutive game, even if that is in Zagreb against Laboral. The Basques have the deepest and the most skillful roster and can win the game with a deficit larger than 3,5 points.
Milan isn’t a reliable enough team despite the rich roster that they have. They only have one win so far and if they don’t beat Limoges in France they’re going to get in trouble. The Italians have to win this game and they will probably succeed. Besides, the 2,5-point handicap is attractive enough for someone to bet in their favor.
Crvena Zvezda have scored 71, 53 and 60 games in their last three games against Real, Khimki and Fenerbahce. Bayern are not really known for their defense, however the truth that the numbers spell out is totally different. They have the sixth most effective defensive performance for every 100 possessions! So, the Serbs, will find it hard to score more than 70,5 points away from home.
Similarly, Khimki are extremely efficient in defense (they have by far the best in the Euroleague) and Fenerbahce certainly has the players who can stop the Russian team’s charismatic guards. The limit of 157,5 points is quite high and the under is in jeopardy only if the game culminates in free throws in the end.
The betting tips
Efes – Olympiacos Under 151,5 points
@ Stoiximan 1,85
Limoges (+2,5) – Milano 2
@Bet365 1,86
Cedevita (+3,5) – Laboral 2
@Coral 1,91
Bayern – Crvena Zvezda Under 70,5 points
@William Hill 1,85
Fenerbahce – Khimki Under 157,5 points
@ Nesine 1,70