By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
In this round’s derby Real definitely need to get the win against Fenerbahce in order to have any hopes of qualifying. The motivation is high for the European champions, but they’re definitely not the favorites for this game.
In betting terms then, the 7,5-point advantage in favor of the Madrilenos is not really justified against one of the best European teams that is actually trying to secure first place. Fenerbahce can win the game in Madrid or at least be defeated in the details.
Also, Real are now with their back against the wall mostly because of their second-rate defensive commitment. They consistently concede more than 77 points in the Euroleague (with the only exception their 98-71 win over Crvena Zvezda), which is Fenerbahce’s limit. The Turks can easily find the way to the opponents’ basket and exceed the limit.
The rhythm of a game often indicates whether the score will range in the highs or lows. However, that’s not always necessarily the case, because, for example, last week the Olympiacos-Laboral game was the game with the second highest number of attacks (78). However, the home team won only just 59-52! But Darussafaka and Malaga usually play at a low pace and they probably won’t exceed a total of 148,5 points.
Bamberg are going to try to slow down the pace and CSKA Moscow’s scoring in order to remain threatening until the end. The limit of 160,5 points is rather high and it’s unlikely that the two teams will exceed it. Besides, the Germans are known for their defense and lately the Russians don’t drive the score too high.
Maccabi are playing one of their last cards in order to advance to the next phase of the Euroleague as they face the only team in the tournament that still haven’t celebrated a win, Sassari. The Israelis have good players on their roster, but not the necessary chemistry. But they can definitely win in Sardinia with more than 3 points and stay alive.
The betting tips
Sassari (+3) – Maccabi 2
@Bet365 1,90
Bamberg – CSKA Moscow Under 161,5 points
@Nesine 1,70
Real Madrid – Fenerbahce (+7,5) 2
@Sportingbet 1,71
Real Madrid – Fenerbahce Fenerbahce Over 76,5 points
@Stoiximan 1,95
Darussafaka – Malaga Under 148,5 points
@William Hill 1,91