By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
With just two rounds left before the end of the regular season, the final standings of all groups and the possible Top16 groups are still a work in progress. Here are all the scenarios for the last open spots and the way the new groups will be composed.
Six Top16 tickers are still left, three of them in Group A and only three teams, CSP Limoges, Pinar Karsiyaka and Dinamo Banco Di Sardegna Sassari are already thinking about the Eurocup Last32. So let’s examine the situation group by group…
Group A
Fenerbahce Istanbul 6-2
Khimki Moscow Region 4-4
FC Bayern Munich 4-4
Crvena Zvezda Telekom 4-4
Real Madrid 3-5
SIG Strasbourg 3-5
Only Fenerbahce has already qualified and they will probably keep the top spot of the group. However everything else at this point is still open. What you have to remember is that Bayern Munich has the tie breaking advantage over Khimki and Strasbourg. Real Madrid is better in all the tie breaks except against Khimki and has to beat Strasbourg with more than 6 points. Crvena Zvezda has the tie breaking advantage over Strasbourg and a 11 points win over Bayern. Khimki is better in a tie than Real Madrid and Crvena Zvezda, but not against Bayern and has a 26 points win over Strasbourg.
Schedule
9th round
Bayern Munich – Real Madrid
Strasbourg – Khimki
Fenerbahce – Crvena Zvezda
10th round
Khimki – Fenerbahce
Real Madrid – Strasbourg
Crvena Zvezda – Bayern Munich
Group B
Olympiacos Pireaus 7-1
Laboral Kutxa Vitoria Gasteiz 5-3
Anadolu Efes Istanbul 4-4
Cedevita Zagreb 4-4
Ea7 Emporio Armani Milano 2-6
CSP Limoges 2-6
Olympiacos needs one more win in order to secure the top spot and only Laboral Kutxa can take it from him. However the Spaniards and Anadolu Efes, which has already qualified to Top16 like Olympiacos, can end up even at the fourth spot of the final standings, because of Cedevita. In case of a tie between Anadolu Efes and Cedevita the tie break will be decided by the total goal average in which the Turks had already an important advantage (+36 versus -5).
Milano can still sneak into Top16, if they beat Cedevita by more than 9 points and Limoges, while Laboral Kutxa prevails over Cedevita.
Schedule
9th round
Anadolu Efes -Laboral Kutxa
Limoges – Olympiacos
Cedevita – EA7 Milano
10th round
Laboral Kutxa – Cedevita
EA7 Milano – Limoges
Olympiacos – Anadolu Efes
Group C
FC Barcelona Lassa 6-2
Lokomotiv Kuban Krasnodar 6-2
Panathinaikos Athens 4-4
Zalgiris Kaunas 4-4
Stelmet Zielona Gora 2-6
Pinar Karsiyaka 2-6
The top spot of the final standings will be decided on the last round in the game between Lokomotiv and Barcelona. At this point both teams are tied and the Catalans have won the first game by 4 points. The only other team that can end up beind second is Zalgiris. The Lithuanians will have to beat Panathinaikos and Barcelona by more than 7 points and also hope for a win of Lokomotiv over the Catalans.
However the most probable scenario is that the Lithuanians will have to fight with Panathinaikos for the third place in the game between the two of them. Panathinaikos has won the first game by 35 points. Zalgiris has already qualified to the Top16 and Panathinaikos has to beat at home Zielona Gora in order to seal the deal. If not, then the Polish club can hope for a miracle with a win over Karsiyaka and a defeat of Panathinaikos at Kaunas.
Schedule
9th round
Karsiyaka-Lokomotiv
Barcelona-Zalgiris
Panathinaikos-Zielona Gora
10th round
Zalgiris – Panathinaikos
Lokomotiv – Barcelona
Zielona Gora-Karsiyaka
Group D
CSKA Moscow 7-1
Unicaja Malaga 6-2
Brose Baskets Bamberg 5-3
Dogus Darussafaka Istanbul 4-4
Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv 2-6
Dinamo Banco Di Sardegna Sassari 0-8
The top spot of the group will probably be decided in the game Unicaja Malaga – CSKA Moscow. On the other hand Brose Baskets can end up even in the second spot, if they get a tie with Unicaja.
The most probable scenario however is a duel between Brose Baskets and Darussafaka for the third place. Maccabi can still hope for Top16 if they beat both Brose Baskets and Darussafaka by more than 11 points, while CSKA Moscow also defeats the Turks.
Schedule
9th round
Maccabi T.A.-Brose Baskets
Dinamo Sassari-Unicaja Malaga
CSKA M.-Darussafaka
10th round
Darussafaka-Maccabi T.A.
Brose Baskets – Sassari
Unicaja Malaga – CSKA M.
With many things undecided yet, here’s how the Top16 groups are shaping up two weeks before the end of the regular season
Group E
Α1 Fenerbahce
Β2 Laboral Kutxa/Olympiacos/Efes/Cedevita
C3 Panathinaikos/Zalgiris
D4 Darusafaka/Brose Baskets/Maccabi
C1 Barcelona/Lokomotiv
D2 Unicaja Malaga/CSKA/Brose Baskets
A3 Khimki/Bayern/Crvena Zvezda/Real M./ Strasbourg
B4 Cedevita/EA7 Milano
Group F
B1 Olympiacos/Laboral Kutxa
C2 Lokomotiv/Barcelona/Zalgiris
D3 Brose Baskets/Darussafaka
A4 Khimki/Bayern Munich/Crvena Zvezda/Real M./Strasbourg
D1 CSKA Moscow/Unicaja Malaga
A2 Khimki/Bayern Munich/Crvena Zvezda/Real M./Strasbourg
B3 Laboral Kutxa/Efes/Cedevita
C4 Zalgiris/Panathinaikos/Zielona Gora