By Lefteris Moutis / moutis@eurohoops.net
CSKA are the favorites against Barcelona but the Catalans are definitely going to put up a good fight. Also, Olympiacos can continue their unbeaten run thanks to their defense.
In the big derby of this round, CSKA has a small lead against Barcelona, but the 7,5 points of the advantage are enough for us not to bet on the away win. The Catalans seem like their getting better and can take advantage of the possible absence of Nando De Colo, whose participation is going to be decided at the last moment. Barcelona can take the tempo down and be competitive.
Olympiacos have the best defense in the Euroleague and, aside from the indifferent – in terms of points – game against Efes, they haven’t conceded more than 63 points in any away games. Bamberg have several solutions in their game, but it’s going to be hard for them to run in the Peace and Friendship stadium and they’re going to try to “lull” Olympiacos. The 69,5-point limit is tempting enough for us to bet on the Under.
Lokomotiv have the second best defense and Fenerbahce the third best in the Euroleague. The tempo won’t necessarily be low, but the Turks’ 78,5 points are definitely enough. Lokomotiv haven’t conceded more than 77 points in any of their games in the Euroleague and, against a team whose average is 78,3, it’s preferable that you bet on the Under.
Four days after their confrontation in the championship, Efes will face Darussafaka again. The last game was decided in the details and they’re certainly not that different from Darussafaka in terms of their capacity. Besides, Efes haven’t defeated any team with a double-digit lead in the last month in order to justify the 9,5-point handicap. So, we’re betting on the away win.
Yes, 89,5 points is indeed a huge limit for a Euroleague game. Real, however, score a lot more in every home game in which they don’t struggle. And, other than that, Zalgiris are a team that steadily concede more than 81 points in their last away games in the Euroleague. So, the European champions are probably going to score more than 90 points.
The betting tips
CSKA – Barcelona (+7,5) 2
@Bet365 1,90
Fenerbahce – Lokomotiv Fenerbahce Under 79,5 points
@William Hill 1,85
Efes – Darussafaka (+9,5) 2
@SBO BET
Real Madrid – Zalgiris Real Over 89,5 points
@Stoiximan 1,85
Olympiacos – Bamberg Bamberg Under 69,5 points
@Coral 1,87