By Lefteris Moutis / moutis@eurohoops.net
For the first time in the history of the EuroLeague there are going to be two game days of the regular period in just four days and the teams are definitely going to have to make an adjustment. To what extent can their performance be affected from traveling and fatigue? In these cases, the teams with the greater depth in their rosters have the advantage. Let’s take a look at the betting analysis for the first four games.
Unics Kazan – Darussafaka
Unics Kazan have lost both games, to Bamberg and Barcelona, down to the wire. They’re still not convincing in their performances, but they look like they can improve. Darussafaka has the material, but like a classic Blatt team it takes them a while to get in form during the season. The game is expected to be closed, but the injury of the multifaceted Coty Clarke can certainly tip the balance in favor of the Turkish team. The absence of the American from a roster that is not teeming with quality options, gives a small advantage to Darussafaka (+2,5 @Stoiximan 1,90).
Olympiacos – Armani Milano
Olympiacos want to pick up from where they left off after the big wins over Panathinaikos and Efes, and on their home court they can respond pretty well. The red-and-whites are going to be uplifted mentally and they will have to strike Milan’s slow defense in transition, like they did with the much better defensively Efes. The Italians are undefeated and are definitely going to play with greater confidence at the Peace & Friendship Stadium. The score will probably reach higher levels than 167,5 points, but it’s safer to bet on a win for Olympiacos by a margin higher than 7,5 points (@Sportingbet 1,83).
Real Madrid have a perfect record with 2-for-2 wins against two strong opponents (Olympiacos and Maccabi). The Spanish derby against Baskonia seems to be within their grasp, but usually these games take place under special circumstances and it’s better to avoid the 10,5-point handicap as the visitors are quite competitive. Both teams, though, try to run on the open court and the score can go high. Real’s point limit is very high (at 92-93 points), but in 4 of the 7 official games they’ve played and in 2 out of 3 at home, they’ve scored more than 90 points. However, it’s better to avoid it, as soon as th limit is too high.
The last game day was very unpleasant for Efes and rather tough, but not so unpleasant for CSKA. The Turkish team are called upon to get their first win against perhaps the most powerful team in the competition and the Muscovites want to return to good appearances. Efes like to play on the open court and they definitely can’t confine CSKA like Panathinaikos did. So, the game is expected to be high tempo, the visitors are the favorites, even for covering the 5,5-point handicap (@BET365 1,76), but the Over at 167,5 point seems safer.
Eurohoops’ tips
Unics KAzan-Darussafaka (+2,5) 2
Olympiacos-Milano (+7,5) 1
Efes (+5,5)-CSKA Moscow 2