By Lefteris Moutis/ info@eurohoops.net
Last week closed ideally for Eurohoops’ betting column, with 3 out of 3 hits, and the new week starts with the big derby, Fenerbahce – Real Madrid.
Unics Kazan – Olimpia Milano
Unics have stayed at the bottom of the standings, unable to follow up on their two wins in a row after the 0-4. Now, with a 2-7 record, they have to react but Olimpia Milano are looking to do something similar, as they have a 4-5 record and count two wins in their last five games. Both teams are rather unpredictable and disparate and so it’s better to trust the Over in the overall points with the limit being set at 166,5 points. In this area as well, both teams adjust according to the opponent, but based on the indicators of defensive behavior, they have the second and third worst defensive rate per possession. So, if the game goes to more than 80 possessions in total, then the Over will be confirmed.
In this round’s big derby, Fenerbahce (6-3) are hosting Real Madrid (7-2), aiming for the second place in the standings. The Turkish team will try to slow the tempo down and throw Real off their game. It’s extremely hard to predict the winner in a game like this, which indeed has a marginal handicap. The point-limit however, is rather high (166,5) and it’s preferable that we bet on the Under. Fenerbahce have the third best defense and Real the second best defense per possession. If, then, the Turkish team manages to keep the tempo low, then the Under is extremely probable.
Bamberg slumped at the bottom of the standings with only two wins in total and, in fact, were defeated for the first time by a margin bigger than 7 points (by 14 points by Zalgiris). CSKA, on the other side, look like they can… survive without Nando De Colo as well. In Bavaria, Bamberg are always extremely competitive, but Trinchieri has a very tight rotation and will probably succumb to CSKA. The handicap is at 6,5 points and the European champions can go over that.
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Anadolu Efes
Maccabi is an entirely different team in recent games, constantly demonstrating the improvement in their chemistry and function as a team. They have a 5-4 record and aspire to get even better. In contrast, Efes have many ups and downs in their performance. The Israelis seem like they’re in better shape and that they will manage to win again this week, but the 5,5-point handicap is discouraging. On the contrary, the point limit is very high and in recent games Maccabi concedes far fewer points than the 81,5 that are Efes’s limit. In the last six games they have conceded 73 from Olympiacos, 73 from Unics, 77 from Fenerbahce, 83 from Panathinaikos in overtime, 79 from Barcelona, and 74 from Zalgiris. So, we are going to bet on Efes’s 81,5-point Under.