By Eurohoops team/ info@eurohoops.net
The previous round of the EuroLeague went pretty well for Eurohoops’ betting column, with 5 out of 7 successful points and a positive record for the first phase.
Efes are not in good shape and they’ve slipped in the standings. They have three defeats in the last four games, while they’re also coming off the loss to Fenerbahce in the Turkish championship. Galatasaray aren’t in much better shape with five defeats in the last six EuroLeague games and, in fact, four of those by two-digit margins. The 8,5-point handicap in Galatasaray’s favor is big, but local derbies are hard to predict. It’s preferable to go with the Over, even if the limit is at 161,5 points (@Sportingbet 1,73). The two teams are the ones that take their games to the most possessions and so, with a normal for them accuracy rate, they will manage to score more points.
Bamberg – Barcelona
In stark contrast to the Efes – Galatasaray game, the Bamberg – Barcelona game is between two teams whose games have the fewest possessions. So, it’s normal then, for the limit to be low, at 150,5 points. Will their point total move along lower levels? Barcelona drive their games to a low score especially away from home, while Bamberg are extremely accurate and very few of their games have a lower aggregate of points (just one in the last nine) than the limit. So, what do we bet on? With the handicap at 3,5 points in the Catalans’ favor (@Stoiximan 1,73) it’s preferable to bet in their favor because of their quality and talent. They won on Zaragoza’s turf for the first time after seven defeats in a row away from the Palau Blaugrana in the EuroLeague and the Spanish championship and they can do it in Germany too.
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Darussafaka
Just ten days after their previous faceoff, Maccabi host Darussafaka, which means that Bagatskis, who was until recently Blatt’s assistant, is hosting his former team. The Israelis have six defeats in a row and the room for recovery is getting narrower. Darussafaka are in good shape with three wins in the last four games, but things are definitely not going to be easy in Tel Aviv. These are two teams that rely heavily on individual talent and the away win is considered likelier because of the 4,5-point handicap in favor of the home team. However, we are going to choose the Over at 77,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,75) for the Turkish team, since it’s not guaranteed that Maccabi’s defense will be able to keep Darussafaka at a lower score. Besides, they haven’t conceded less in a month and a half…
Baskonia – Unics Kazan
Baskonia, who have five wins in the last six games, are hosting Unics, who have three wins in a row. The Basques are very strong at home, having been defeated only by Olympiacos. The Russians, on the other side, are extremely competitive and fight most of their games. With the handicap at 8,5 points in Unics’s favor we can bet with relative safety on the away win (@Bet365 1,71). After all, Baskonia are coming off the big win over Real and they probably won’t seek to widen the gap too much.
The choices
Efes – Galatasaray Over 161,5 points
Bamberg – Barcelona (+3,5) 2
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Darussafaka Darussafaka Over 77,5
Baskonia – Unics Kazan (+8,5) 2