By Lefteris Moutis/ info@eurohoops.net
Two big derbies dominate Friday’s EuroLeague schedule. What’s going to happen in the derbies in the Peace & Friendship Stadium (Olympiacos – Panathinaikos) and the one in Madrid (Real – CSKA) ?
Fenerbahce are looking for an opportunity to strike back and recover after the three defeats in the last four games, and the game against Milan looks ideal. Bogdanovic’s return makes things easier for Obradovic, who will have more choices in the backcourt. Milano are in very bad shape with eight defeats in a row, seven of those by wide margins. The handicap is at 11,5 points (@Sportingbet 1,75) and the home team can exceed that. In fact, based on Milano’s defensive image – they have the worst defense in the EuroLeague, conceding 88 points on average – the Over 83,5 points for the Turkish team is also pretty likely (@Stoiximan 1,70).
Zalgiris Kaunas – Crvena Zvezda
Two teams that started out the season with low expectations have made an impression with their performances. Zalgiris have a 6-9 record and Crvena Zvezda are at 7-8. Because they’re playing at home, Zalgiris seem to have a small advantage for the win based on the handicap (3,5 points), but in a game like this, it’s better to avoid betting on a winner. The two teams usually set a slow pace in their games, but away from Belgrade Zvezda is not always so effective. Respectively, all six of Zalgiris’s last games at Kaunas had a bigger point total than the 153,5 of the limit. So, we are going to bet on the Over (@Bet365 1,73).
In the big Greek derby, everyone is going to be present. Olympiacos are going to have Spanoulis and Printezis at their disposal, while Panathinaikos too are going to have Gentile for the first time in the EuroLeague and for the first time against the Red-and-whites this year, James and Gabriel. Will Olympiacos manage to beat the Greens for the third time this year and, in fact, by more than 3,5 points? Anything is possible. This is why it’s better to go with the Over, as the limit of 148,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,73) is pretty low. Both games between them this year had a bigger aggregate of points, Panathinaikos will try to enforce their own pace and so the point total is expected to go higher.
In Madrid, Real are going to try and beat CSKA and get closer to them at the top of the standings. Llull is revved up, De Colo and Teodosic have made a dynamic return and the game looks close. It’s tough to call the winner in a game like this and so it’s preferable to bet on the points. The limit is very high (171,5 points) and no matter how much offensive talent the two teams have, it’s going to be hard to exceed. In the first phase, the point total was bigger in only 4 of Real’s 15 games. And, respectively, in none of CSKA’s last five games was the point total bigger than 176,5. So, we’re betting on the Under (@Sportingbet 1,73).
The choices:
Fenerbahce – Olimpia Milano (+11,5) 1
Fenerbahce – Olimpia Milano Over 83,5 points
Zalgiris Kaunas – Crvena Zvezda Over 153,5 points
Olympiacos – Panathinaikos Over 148,5 points
Real Madrid – CSKA Moscow Under 176,5 points