By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Panathinaikos are hosting Efes at the Olympic Sports Center in Athens, wanting to rebound after their two defeats in a row. Will they manage to get an easy win? Eurohoops analyses the day’s games in the EuroLeague.
CSKA Moscow – Milan
The best offense in the EuroLeague (CSKA with 88,4 points per game) meets the worst defense (Milan, who concede 87,8 points per game). So, isn’t the choice of Over 92,5 points obvious? Not if one considers the fact that in the last seven games CSKA haven’t scored more than 92 points in any of them. As well as the fact that, Milan, respectively, haven’t conceded more than 89 points in their last six games. So, let’s stay clear of that Over.
Can CSKA, who have three defeats in a row and who are looking to launch a counteroffensive, beat Milan, who have nine consecutive defeats, by more than 16,5 points? It’s better to trust CSKA’s defense, which has clearly improved and which, no matter how fast the game’s tempo is, can keep Milan to a total below 78,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,80).
Galatasaray have four defeats in a row and just one win in the last seven games and are trying to break free from last place. Zalgiris have many ups and downs, but now their last wins have been away from home. Because of the home court, the Turkish team has a small advantage, but both teams are pretty unpredictable. So, it’s better to bet on the Under 163,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,70), as the limit is very high since Galatasaray are much improved defensively and Zalgiris are a team who try to force fewer possessions in their games.
Panathinaikos are coming from two consecutive defeats that took the wind out of their sails and they will definitely be thinking about the Cup semifinal against Olympiacos that is coming up. And the clash with Efes is going to be anything but easy. The Turkish team is very athletic, has many solutions close to the basket, but with the ups and downs in their performance they haven’t managed to stabilise themselves higher in the standings. In any case, the limit of 9 points (@Bet365 1,71) in favour of the home team definitely looks high. The Greens are the favourites but Efes aren’t expected to surrender so easily, so we’re betting on the away win.
Real – Maccabi
Real are going to try to keep themselves in second place in the standings, having seven wins in eight home games and habitually driving up their winning margin. In their last game, Maccabi put a stop to the negative streak of seven consecutive defeats and have players who can do damage anywhere. The handicap of 11,5 points prevents us from betting on it. However, the Over at 171,5 points (@Sportingbet 1,73) is rather attractive since Real, at home, take their games to a high score and Maccabi is not a team that can slow the tempo down.
The choices
CSKA Moscow – Milan Milan Under 78,5 points
Galatasaray – Zalgiris Under 163,5 points
Panathinaikos – Efes (+9) 2
Real – Maccabi Over 171,5 points