By Eurohoops team/ info@eurohoops.net
It’s obvious that the general idea of building a strong team is to have a unit which is not depended to a few players. And while you can’t deny this line of thinking, numbers prove that things are not exactly like that.
With the Basketball Champions League Final Four upon us, Statathlon presents the full season analysis of the bench’s contribution to wins in the competition. And the results are not exactly what you would expect.
Introduction
It is an undeniable fact that nowadays teams in Europe have a wider rotation than they used to two or three decades ago when just 7 or 8 players usually had to carry the team. It is also a common belief that a basic element of success is to have a strong bench with role players who can contribute to scoring and be game changers. However, are there any exceptions to this rule? This research analyzes data from the current season of Basketball Champions League to determine whether teams which get a high percentage of their total points from bench players also have a greater chance of winning the game.
Data and Methodology Used
All data is valid as of April 3rd, 2019. In order to make better comparisons between teams of different dynamics, they were split into 2 different groups: teams which were eliminated after regular season and teams which made at least till the round of 16. For each team, the average points of bench points will be presented, as Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient between bench points and margin of victory (or loss). This coefficient ranges between -1 and 1. Higher positive values mean that when bench players score more, the difference between team points and opponent points is higher.
Regular Season Teams
As it is displayed on the relevant graph, the average regular season team had 37.3% of its total points scored by bench players. Surprising or not, the team with the worst record (Union Olimpija, 1 – 13), saw its bench scoring approximately 46% of its total points. Another interesting fact is the comparison of Group B teams to the rest of the groups. All 4 of them (UNET Holon, Telekom Baskets Bonn, Fribourg Olympic & Opava) were below the relevant team average by at least 2%. Even though it was ranked 4th in points per game and was eliminated in a tie, Avellino got a very small amount of points by its bench players. In other words, less than 17 points per game.
Results, however, show that there is a slight negative correlation between bench points scored and margin of win (or loss). This means that the higher the bench points percentage, the more likely for the team to lose or win with a smaller margin. Dijon is a great example. Even though it got nearly 65% of its points by starters, the correlation graph shows that when its bench scored more, Dijon also won more games. On the other hand, teams such Fribourg, Nymburk, and Bayeruth would probably prefer having their starters on a great day as they were losing with a bigger margin when those players contributed less to scoring than benchwarmers and role players.
Round of 16 Teams
On the other hand, teams which qualified to Round of 16 get a slightly higher percentage of their total points scored by bench players. Except for Nanterre, Le Mans, and Banvit, all the other teams are above 33% in bench points contributed. However, only Umana Reyer Venezia is above 45%. AEK Athens, last year’s champion, gets just approximately 35% of its points from its bench players but this could also be a result of the many injuries of key players it had this season.
As the teams of the first group, there is a very slight (almost negligible) correlation between bench points scored and margin of win. There are four teams for which a notable positive correlation was found (Nanterre, Virtus Bologna, PAOK, Hapoel Jerusalem) as well as four with a notable negative one (Neptunas Klaipeda, Antwerp, AEK Athens, Le Mans). The interesting conclusion in the cases of Nanterre and Virtus Bologna is that their bench didn’t contribute too much in scoring, but when it did, they won more easily.
Conclusion
Overall, it was shown that more bench points do not always lead to bigger wins (or narrower losses). In the current season of Basketball Champions League, the proportion of bench points ranges from 19.7% το 51.3%. Results vary, as there are weaker sides which get more bench points than stronger teams do, as well as others that win easier when they rely more on their starters.