By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
The end of Top16 is upon us, the race is still on and this week’s games can make or break the effort many teams are giving from December until now. CSKA Moscow, Real Madrid and Anadolu Efes have almost the same chances for the home court advantage in the play offs, while Panathinaikos needs one more win in order to seal its place in the quarterfinals.
In the other group, Barcelona has locked the top spot, lost Pete Mickael and can be the judge of which other teams will advance to the play offs. Four contenders have the same 7-5 record (Maccabi Tel Aviv, Olympiacos, Khimki, Siena) and only three of them will be in the play offs with Caja Laboral still hoping for a miracle. Siena has the most difficult task since this week it faces Barcelona at home, then travels to Vitoria and if the Italians can’t get at least a win, then they may lose not the home court advantage but also their place in the quarterfinals.
Eurohoops game of the week: CSKA Moscow – Real Madrid
It’s the hottest game this week. Real has won their first encounter by 8 points in overtime, but many things have changed since then. In the last weeks the weaknesses of Real in set game situations were exposed. With a 3-3 record in the last six games and two consecutive defeats in Madrid, its home court advantage in the play offs is in danger.
Both teams have the same record (9-3) and CSKA Moscow wants to win in order to get the advantage in the race for the top two spots. It will be a game decided on defense and tempo, but also in the shooting percentages of the two opponents, because both like to shoot from the perimeter. CSKA wants for sure to stop Rudy Fernandez and Carroll who had combined for 51 points in the first game and try to slow down the tempo. The secondary goal of the Russian powerhouse will be to cover the 8 points difference in order to get the tie breaker advantage.
Honorable mention: Siena – Barcelona
After losing to Besiktas, Siena is in trouble, not only for the second spot of the standings, but also for the qualification to the quarterfinals. This danger could be even more imminent if the Catalans beat the Italians in Tuscany. The team of coach Pascual has secured the top spot of the group and have to cope with the shock of losing Pete Mickael for the rest of the season. It’s a huge blow for the Catalans, losing the player giving them balance on the court and many advantages in five vs five plays. The Italians had some minor injury woes (Janning, Hacket), they have a bigger motive, but during the last seasons Barca has proven that it plays to win every single game.
Motive for one: Anadolu Efes – Unicaja Malaga
Despite losing in Kaunas, the hopes of Anadolu Efes for the home court advantage are intact. The Turkish club has the chance to get its 10th Top16 win against disappointed Unicaja. The team from Malaga tried its best, but the home defeat by CSKA probably was the end of the play offs’ dream. Nobody can underestimate the team of coach Repesa on the road, after its triumphs in Madrid and Moscow, even with injured Krunoslav Simon and Earl Calloway out, but even with a win, Anadolu Efes will just lose ground in the hunt of the two top spots and Malaga will need one more win and two defeats of Panathinaikos in order to advance.
Different goals: Brose Baskets – Panathinaikos
This could be the last chance of the defending German champions to get their first win of their history in Top16. That’s their big motive and coach Flemming underlined it in his press conference before the game, despite the team’s 0-12 record. Brose Baskets is a really competitive team, but couldn’t close many games the way it wanted. Panathinaikos had some tough nights in Bamberg, but after winning in Madrid the Greens need one more win in order to seal their qualification and they don’t want to wait until the last week of Top16.
A trap: Fenerbahce/ Ulker – Olympiacos
Fener was the biggest disappointment of this season’s Top16, but the last impression counts and a win against the defending Euroleague champions can be something they could be proud of. The Reds had many injuries during the last weeks, they are not the team every one was expecting them to be and this game could be a trap for them, if they are not focused in defense. Every team with a decent defensive efficiency have won Fener this season in Euroleague. In this game Giorgos Printezis is expected to be back in action for Olympiacos and maybe we could also see Bogdanovic from Fenerbahce who wasn’t used in the last TBL game, but he was on the bench.
To the limit: Khimki – Caja Laboral
After the win of Maccabi Tel Aviv in Piraeus, Khimki doesn’t have anything guaranteed for the play offs, since the Russians will play their last Top16 game on the road against Olympiacos. So they have to beat Caja Laboral, because at this point a home defeat could be catastrophic. Caja Laboral has one win less, a 6-6 record and needs a miracle in order to qualify in the quarterfinals. That translates to two wins against Khimki and Siena, covering the point difference from the first round defeats and also some luck in a possible final tie in the standings. It’s a hard to predict game, but the home court gives the advantage to Khimki.
Open book: Maccabi Tel Aviv – Besiktas
It’s the most predictable game of this week. Maccabi Tel Aviv beat Olympiacos last week, Besiktas had its honorary win against Siena and now in Nokia Arena the team of coach Blatt is oblidged to win in order to get a 8-5 record and give its last qualification battle next week in Barcelona.
A prep game: Alba Berlin – Zalgiris Kaunas
After winning the German cup in front of its home audience, Alba wants also the German championship. After two wins in Top16, the time from Berlin will try to get a third one against Zalgiris, which is playing for its pride with the players having their minds also in the ownership crisis of the team. It’s a game just for pride with both opponents having other priorities at this point of the season.