By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
It’s a week that will be remembered. The first expanded Top16 is ending and even in the last moment you have to expect the unexpected – unless of course you are Barcelona. It’s too early to get a safe conclusion for the benefits of this new format and just one season is a really small sample to analyze. However, Eurohoops has already understood two things.
First of all, maths will be more important than ever for the final standings and the clubs should hire a mathematician in order to know every possibility (here are all the scenarios for the final standings in order to know what will happen). Secondly, with the new format you can’t avoid playing some really good teams in Top16, so it’s more of a matter of WHEN you play them and in WHICH condition. So let’s get ready for seven big games and in 22.30 (CET) the play offs couples will be known.
Eurohoops game of the week: Caja Laboral – Siena
It was a tough choice. At least four games are more than interesting, but our choice is the clash in Vitoria. Why? Because among all the scenarios on both groups this is the game in which the situation in most cases is really simple. The winner will be in the play offs and the Euroleague season will end for the loser. And one thing is for sure: Only one of those teams will qualify for the play offs, there isn’t a scenario in which both continue their season.
The team of coach Tabak is the favorite and we believe that the Basques will prevail. They have a deeper roster, they are in better condition, they have won on the road in Moscow and they will be pushed by the home crowd. Siena has a shorter rotation and that’s evident in the last weeks, as its players seem tired and have lost consecutive games.
There is one more reason for our choice. The team of coach Banchi have surprised everyone this season, nobody expected such a strong performance in Euroleague after the departure of many players who were instrumental in last season’s successes and for that, the defending Italian champions are worth of respect, even if they don’t make it to the play offs.
Honorable mention: Olympiacos – Khimki
The defending Euroleague champion and the last Eurocup winner are the two opponents and a win will bust their chances to get to the play offs, something that applies specially to the Russians. The hosts are in a better position after last week’s results, but they can still miss the quarterfinals in case of a blow out defeat.
So, it’s still a do or die game for both. Khimki knows that a defeat can be a disaster, but Olympiacos doesn’t produce attractive or really efficient basketball at least the last month, have lost two consecutive games in Piraeus and that may end up in a Greek tragedy.
Zoran Planinic will have to create for his teammates, Khimki is counting on him in order for the front line to get involved in the game and possibly make a difference. Olympiacos hopes to be focused for the majority of the 40 minutes, play better defense and get bigger help by its post players. Kyle Hines can’t be the hero every time and save the day, like he did in the first game in Moscow. This time, anything can happen.
A game of history: Panathinakos – CSKA Moscow
Both teams are in the play offs, CSKA Moscow has almost secured the top spot and only a blow out defeat can change the standings. On the other hand, Panathinaikos with a win will avoid the fourth place of the standings and the play offs coupling with the steadiest team of the season, Barcelona.
The hosts have the biggest motive, but coach Messina doesn’t like the idea of losing, not his players getting looser than they should be, specially before the play offs and against a rival from the past. CSKA have met Panathinaikos on the same court at Euroleague’s final of 2007, also faced the Greens in the final of 2009 and lost both games with the Italian being on the bench. Yes, CSKA is the favorite, but who can predict the outcome?
A matter of tempo: Real Madrid – Anadolu Efes
Both teams have the same record (9-4) and want the win that can be translated to the second place and the home court advantage in the play offs. Both have lost their previous game, they have quality, but also many up and downs in their performance – specially Efes – and the result will be a matter of rhythm. Real Madrid is weaker in a set game, but it’s really a royal team in transition. Anadolu Efes and its coach, Oktay Mahmuti, prefer a more slow paced game, his players have individual quality and they also have the recipe from Panathinaikos, a really low tempo game that made Real look bad.
The adjuster: Barcelona – Maccabi Tel Aviv
Barcelona is the best team of Top16, has the top spot in its group and hosts Maccabi, which has won six consecutive games, four of them on the road and can even get the second place of its group with one more win, if Olympiacos beats Khimki.
If the team of coach Pascual has a similar performance to its last domestic league game against Valencia, Barca should be considered the favorite despite losing until the end of the season Pete Mickael. Maccabi doesn’t really has answers for the Catalans, no matter how good the Israelis can play. However, Maccabi has a bigger motive and that can make a difference.
Deserving better: Unicaja Malaga – Alba Berlin
The effort of Unicaja in the second round of Top16 was sensational and the last six weeks the team demonstrated great character, something that wasn’t expected considering its past. It can be said that the Spaniards deserved more, but their big gain from this season can be this character, that was missing in the recent past. It’s something they can build on. As for Alba Berlin, having already two Top16 wins – against Brose Baskets – and the German domestic cup, this game is just one last party.
Only a dream: Zalgiris – Brose Baskets
After a great regular season, Zalgiris Kaunas lost its management, its owner and its future in Euroleague. The reign of Romanov is past – at least in the form we were used to it – and the dream for a really good season, after the landmark of 1999, when the team went all the way to the trophy, was shattered. Brose Baskets wanted to get at least its first ever Top16 win, but they didn’t and it will be really hard to get it on the road in Kaunas, specially with the Germans having already focused on their domestic league and their quest of defending their championship title.
The disappointments: Besiktas – Fenerbahce/ Ulker
It’s the only game on Friday and there is an obvious reason about this. The two Turkish teams couldn’t do anything exceptional this season. Of course, Besiktas only win against Siena can have a terrible cost for the Italians, but the Euroleague campaign of Fener in 2012-13 was a disaster and at least the torture is ending.