By Nikos Varlas/ varlas@eurohoops.net
The time has come and the heart of European basketball beats in Istanbul. Four teams will fight for the Euroleague title and in the end… CSKA will win. Well, that’s the general consensus, but if it was so easy, then basketball would be just logistics and not a sport. The truth is that the history of the Euroleague Final Fours is full of upsets and specially in the Nineties there was that dreaded “curse of the favorite”, a title that nobody was willing to accept before the games.
Can we see again such a story? As Zeljko Obradovic said about his team’s semifinal “we will know all the answers this Friday by 20.00”. But let us try at least to point 10 different elements that will be really important in the final outcome of Friday’s semifinals
Barcelona vs Olympiacos
It sounded strange when coach Duda Ivkovic said it, but Olympiacos will try to beat Barcelona playing uptempo basketball. Maybe there isn’t an other choice for Duda – “we don’t stand a chance if we play a set game” – so here are the ten keys that will decide the final winner:
1) What will be the offensive production of Juan Carlos Navarro and will he be able to create for his teammates? The leader of Barcelona has the license to shoot in big games and that usually means 6 to 9 three points attempts. Will Olympiacos try and emulate what Real Madrid did against Navarro, with Jaycee Carroll attacking him on defense? Olympiacos doesn’t have a guy like Carroll, so the player that Navarro will be guarding, will probably try to post him up.
2) How many minutes in the court will last Boniface Dong for Barca and Joey Dorsey for Olympiacos? Those two players are the keys in destroying the pick ‘n’ roll of their opponents. Dorsey’s presence upgraded the Reds defense after the Top 16, but Dong is doing the same the whole season, with his long arms and his excellent defensive awareness. When those two are not playing, the defensive efficiency of their teams is down at least by 25-30%!
3) If Olympiacos finds a way to slow down Navarro (who usually has at least one 10 point scoring outburst at some point in the game) then the Reds will also have to stop the second option of Barcelona against a set defense. They will have to contain Eidson and Mickael in the post. Those two are the real play makers and not the point guards, Huertas and Sada. Those two versatile forwards are a triple threat in the post. They can finish the play, they can pass to the cutting big, or they can throw the ball in the weak side (it depends from where the defensive help is coming) for an open shot. This defensive goal for Olympiacos is as important, as stopping Navarro.
4) How the two young Olympiacos’ guards, Mantzaris and Sloukas, will react in the semifinal. They have key roles, but no experience in that level. They will have to counter Huertas and Sada, who seems to be playing more than the Brazilian in the last crucial games.
5) Barcelona has to do on Acie Law the same that Olympiacos will try on Eidson and Navarro. He is the second creator for the Reds, aside Spanoulis, he is the decision maker that will get the ball, if for any reason it’s not in the hands of Olympiacos’ captain. His quality was the catalyst for Olympiacos’ qualification against Siena and he was the key player in the break of Game 1 in Italy. He will try to do damage, it’s his nature and Barcelona should stop him.
6) Points on transition. Olympiacos will try to run and it’s also in Barcelona’s DNA. The team that will get the more points in fast breaks will be closer to victory, specially in this game, even if we are used in low scoring Final Four games. Why? Those two teams are two of the three best Euroleague defenses (the other is CSKA Moscow).
7) Three point shots percentage. Big shots always made the difference in knock out games and this season Olympiacos and Barcelona have a relative low percentage, with some great night between. Who’s night will Friday be?
8 ) Can the players that will get open looks, hit them? That’s what made the difference for Barcelona last year in the play off series against Panathinaikos. Obradovic gave them open shots, but Rubio and Sada didn’t punish him. That’s why Barcelona got Eidson last summer, but he is not considered a “three point assassin”, specially in knock out games. The same applies for Olympiacos’ forwards. They will have to play hard defense against players like Mickael, Eidson and Wallace, but also make shots. Olympiacos will not be able to use three guard on the court, something the Reds did against guard oriented teams, like Anadolu Efes and Galatasaray.
9) The refereeing management. How the referees will call every touch, what will be their criterion, how many mistakes will they make? It’s worth noting that Olympiacos believes that Spanoulis should win even more shots from the foul line, specially in comparison with the calls that Navarro, Diamantidis and Kirilenko get.
10) There are always x-factors in the Final Four and you can’t predict everything before the games. Which team will be in its best day, a last minute injury, the first minutes of the semifinal, the reaction of the benches, a coaching decision, the details. All those factors will play a role in the final outcome of the game.
CSKA vs Panathinaikos
In the second semifinal the scenery is similar in terms of the roles. CSKA is the favorite – to win the title – so that makes Panathinaikos the underdog. But can you really say that for the defending champions? Here are the ten keys of the game:
1) The control of the tempo is always a key in modern European basketball, that’s a given in any game, but in this game the goal seems to be more perplexed, cause the two opponents can adapt to many different playing styles. The most logical choice for Panathinaikos will be to impose a set game in order to break the rhythm of CSKA, that seems to play in offense based more in the instinct and the athletic abilities of their players.
2) The defensive rebound will be one of the top priorities for the Greens. CSKA is used to having many second, even third, chance points. If the block outs of Panathinaikos prove to be ineffective, then the job of CSKA will be easier. Kirilenko, Kryapa and Voronchevich are great offensive rebounders and Panathinaikos will try to counter them with a match up zone defense, in order to protect the paint and be ready to rebound.
3) The patience of Panathinaikos against coach Kazlauskas’ organized defense. CSKA can really cut the vision to the basket, having so many big bodies and long arms. You must play smart and have patience against them. You must pass to ball, cut quickly to the basket, fake in the post and try to generate space. If you are prepared well this is something that you can do, but the trick is to do it for 40 minutes and this really very hard.
4) The next most crucial point is shooting. The way that Obradovic’s team plays all those years and the roster of CSKA leads only to one conclusion! Panathinaikos will have to have almost 10 three points made in order to win.
5) That works both ways. Panathinaikos will try to protect its paint and the lanes to the basket. There will be no space there and that means that the back court of CSKA should make shots, with Teodosic, Siskauskas and Shved being the primary options.
6) This is a prediction. In that kind of game, the two leaders will save the best for last. It will be very hard for them, specially for Diamantidis to carry Panathinaikos for 40 minutes against a team like CSKA and the same applies for Kirilenko. Diamantidis will have a hard time against the athletic guards of CSKA. That means that there must be other players ready to carry the load and if in the final five minutes the game is on the line, then Diamantidis and Kirilenko will try to “close” it. But in order to get to that point, there must be others that will contribute greatly.
7) The resilience of Mike Batiste against the strongest frontline in Euroleague. He will have to be 110% the player he was in his best nights this season and will need the help of Ian Vougioukas and Alex Maric.
8 ) CSKA’s forwards have the luxury of an off night in the semifinal, provided that some of them will play according to their standards. It’s not the same for Panathinaikos and Romain Sato. He should be the catalyst for his team, he is the best one on one defender of the Greens and he will get open looks. It’s not a coincidence that some of the biggest Panathinaikos’ wins the last two seasons in Euroleague, were games in which Sato produced from the three points line.
9) The duel between Nick Calathes and Alexey Shved. It’s a given that Diamantidis and Teodosic will be the center of attention for the opposing defense, so those other two guards could prove to be hidden aces. Calathes did that last year in the play offs against Barcelona and Shved did the same in the regular season’s game against Panathinaikos in Moscow.
10) The final point is the same. The team that will be on each best day, the quality of the refereeing, the x-factors, the reactions of the benches are all details that will count in the end and the challenge for the coaches, especially Obradovic, is great.