by Berkay Terzi / info@eurohoops.net
As we approach the NBA halfway through the regular season, most teams have a clear goal. Some set the bar for the championship, some were more modest and saw the playoffs as enough. Those who want to look to the future more hopeful have their eyes on the NBA Draft.
The teams in the third category have great reasons to keep their excitement alive because in the 2023 Draft there is an alien like Victor Wembanyama and a consolation award like Scoot Henderson. Of course, other talents should not be overlooked. As you know, every draft class pulls at least one rabbit out of a hat.
As the highly anticipated month of June approached, we had enough idea about many prospects and decided to put our impressions on paper.
Lottery
As a result of the draw from Tankathon, the San Antonio Spurs won the lottery. They played to the top of the NBA for many years with admirable consistency. After several mediocre seasons, they finally hoisted the white flag. The Spurs, who started a new story with Tim Duncan in the 1997 NBA Draft, want to do the same with Victor Wembanyama this time.
San Antonio was followed by Texas’ other team, the Houston Rockets. The Washington Wizards, known for their poor draft history, jumped to third place, while the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic were the teams that were relegated as a result of the draw.
Top 5
1- San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama (PF/C, 19.4 draft age)
Not much needs to be said about Victor Wembanyama. Imagine a 2.21-meter player who can shoot pull-ups, score in different ways with or without the ball, threatens with his length in both rims, has a high mobility, has the possibility of being a no.1 option in the NBA. That’s exactly the potential we face in the first pick of the 2023 NBA Draft. I don’t know if it’s the best prospect ever, because there’s a reality like young LeBron. But it’s certainly the most unique prospect we’ll ever see. I don’t think a player like this will ever come again.
We’re all familiar with Wemby’s game and its potential. But there is a mistake that we often fall into when evaluating him. We always consider Wembanyama through his ceiling. Where will he be in 5 years? Could he become one of the greatest players when his career is over? Can he dominate the league? Such questions appeal to all of us. But we also need to talk a little bit about Wemby’s floor. Because even in the worst-case scenario, he shows All-Star potential.
Wembanyama’s biggest question marks are lack of strength and injury history. I think the lack of strength is sometimes exaggerated. A player with freakish length doesn’t always need strength to score or defend. Evan Mobley (2021) and Chet Holmgren (2022) faced similar criticism. Wemby is ahead of both in terms of skill set and predisposition to size development. When it comes to injuries, many of the arguments are hypothetical.
In a nutshell, if you have such a unique young talent in front of you, you choose him without thinking too much. It’s no-brainer.
2- Houston Rockets: Scoot Henderson (PG, 19.3 draft age)
Scoot Henderson would be selected from the first pick in any draft class. But the presence of Victor Wembanyama puts a dent in Scoot Henderson’s path. Still, I don’t think the team that falls to second place in this draft will make a fuss. The young player has the kind of potential to change the fate of the club.
Scoot Henderson would be selected from the first pick in any draft class. But the presence of Victor Wembanyama pushed Scoot Henderson back. Still, I don’t think the team that gets the second pick will be upset. The young player has the kind of potential that can change the fate of any franchise.
Scoot has athleticism at the level of Westbrook, Morant and prime Rose. Both his vertical jump and quickness are elite. Since his 3s don’t pose a serious threat yet, defenders can give him space. But that’s not enough to stop Scoot. His first-step explosiveness and ability to change direction are so good that he has no trouble beating his defenders. A point guard who reaches the paint so easily is unlikely to fail. Terrific slasher. In-between game is already at the NBA level. It’s hard to find anyone better than Scoot as a primary ball-handler in this draft class.
Scoot Henderson’s biggest question mark right now is his outside shot. Like I said, because he doesn’t cause a serious threat, the defenders go under the screen against him and give him space. Scoot is unable to consistently punish defenses that do not respect his shot. But pull-up mid-ranges, and the increase in percentage (from 21% to 35%) are promising.
Scoot’s maturity on the court has improved since last season. His half-court creativity and playmaking skills also made progress. Despite this, he can sometimes make bad decisions. This is reflected in shot selections and simple turnovers. But it’s important to remember that he led a team when he was just 19 years old.
3- Washington Wizards: Amen Thompson (PG/SG, 20.3 draft age)
It’s hard to evaluate Amen Thompson. Why? Because he plays in an organization called Overtime Elite, which was founded last year and where basketball is played almost at the high school level. There are also 16-year-old players. OTE’s first prospect was Jean Montero and he remained undrafted. In a place where the competition is so low, it becomes very difficult to measure the player’s ability. Despite all these problems, I’ve never seen Amen fall out of the top 5 in any mock.
The reason for this is the superhuman athleticism it incorporates. Every detail that comes to your mind when you hear this word is present at the highest level in Amen Thompson. Unstoppable in the open field, the first step explosiveness is terrific, the vertical jump and acceleration/deceleration are incredible. Amen combines this trait with his creative ball handling and terrific passing. He can create positions for himself as well as his teammates. Especially when it comes to directing double plays, the front is very clear. Maybe he needs to play the duo games a little more patiently, but this is an experience that will be gained over time.
Every detail that comes to your mind when you hear that word is existing in Amen Thompson. He’s unstoppable in the open court, his first step and bounce are great, he’s incredible at acceleration/deceleration. Amen combines this trait with his creative ball-handling and terrific passing. He can create positions for himself as well as his teammates. Especially when it comes to operating P&Rs, the future is bright. Maybe he needs to play the P&Rs a little more patiently, but this is an experience that will be gained over time.
One of the things I like about Amen Thompson is his defensive potential. Since he is a guard 2 meters tall, he can also matchup with the wings. He showed positive things, especially in 1v1 defense. But someone has to convince Amen to play defense. Sometimes he impresses you with his defense, and sometimes he leaves his team one person short. As long as he has consistency, he can evolve into a good defender in the NBA.
But when the draft day comes, there are very important weaknesses that can make teams hesitate. Two details in particular stand out at this point. The first of these is about his shooting. Amen Thompson hit just 0.8 three-pointers on 27 percent. The real problem is more serious than the percentages and figures. Amen may have the most interesting shooting mechanics I’ve seen in recent prospects. He has to focus on shooting mechanics because that’s the main source of the problem he has. His shooting mechanics are not fluid. This is a situation that can limit his pull-ups, indirectly his scoring. Opponents do not respect his shot and defend him from a distance.
The second problem is the half-court creativity. Amen Thompson finds the majority of his points in fastbreaks and in the open court. But when the game is confined to the half-court, his impact wanes. We can say that his creativity depends largely on his explosiveness. NBA-level half-court scoring is a question mark. He may have problems at the first stage of his career.
Amen is the third player after Wemby and Scoot to carry a starlight. However, he has a long way to go than this duo.
4- Detroit Pistons: Cam Whitmore (SF/PF, 18.9 draft age)
Cam Whitmore seems like the reliable option thanks to its strong body and perimeter shooting. If the expectation is to use Cam Whitmore as a complementary piece, he can start contributing as he entered the league. He’s active in transition, off-the-ball cuts, and offensive rebounds. Defensively, he’s quite enough. But if you ask him to play a bigger role, it can be a bit of a long and painful process.
Although he shows some shooting off-the-dribble flashes, he’s not yet reliable enough to move into a creative role. He can attack close-outs, knows how to use his strength, and is a good spot-up shooter. But he doesn’t yet know how to score in different ways. His scoring is generally based on spot-up shots and opportunity buckets. There has to be a long way to go in terms of on-ball creation. He may need to improve his ball-handling because sometimes he is too attached to his strength. That’s why Cam Whitmore reminds me of Miles Bridges. Bridges faced similar problems when he came into the league. Over time, however, he evolved into a more consistent creator and expanded his scoring arsenal. Whitmore may have that kind of potential, too.
But there’s something that’s in Miles Bridges that Cam Whitmore doesn’t: Passing. Bridges has improved as pick&roll ball-handler over the years. He had also gained experience in college. We can’t speak very hopeful about Whitmore. In 12 games, he has 23 turnovers and 10 assists. Even if he plays as the finisher, these numbers are not very bright. If he wants to excel in creative role like Bridges in the future, he has to do better than that.
5- Charlotte Hornets: Ausar Thompson (SG/SF, 20.3 draft age)
Amen Thompson’s twin brother Ausar also has a strong chance to go from the top 5. Ausar gives off less starlight compared to Amen. At OTE, where Amen is seen as the first player, he takes a bit of a back seat but makes two-way impact. He has a high level of athleticism, thanks to his length he is able to defend the wings and guards.
I love Ausar’s passing skills and creativity around the rim. Good decision maker in the flow of the offense. But he doesn’t do these things as a primary ball-handler. That’s partly why the starlight isn’t as bright as Amen. He plays more like a complementary piece. He’s more consistent defensively.
Similar to the shooting problems in Amen, Ausar also has it. Ausar Thompson’s shot is a bit better than Amen’s. But even his steady shot doesn’t inspire confidence. If he wants to be complementary at the NBA level, he has to make progress. Thankfully, shooting mechanics aren’t as desperate as Amen.
Similar to the shooting problems in Amen, Ausar also has it. Shooting mechanics are not fluid. Ausar Thompson’s shot is a bit better than Amen’s. Still, spot-up shooting aren’t even reliable. If he wants to be complementary at the NBA level, he has to make progress. Thankfully, shooting mechanics aren’t as desperate as Amen.
6-10
6- Orlando Magic: Brandon Miller (SF, 20.6 draft age)
Brandon Miller, who scored one of the top scorers of the season with 36 points in December, is a prospect we need to set our expectations correctly. He is 2.06 meters tall, makes 3.2 (45.1%) three-pointers per game, and is effective defensively thanks to his length. He has no trouble getting his name into the top 10. Also, his passing skills can be overlooked at times.
However, there is a dilemma like this: A player with these skills is worthy of being selected from the top 10. So, would you spend your Top 5 pick? Miller is likely to be a useful complement to the NBA starting five. But the perspective of the teams in the top 5 is different. Teams looking to add stellar potential to their young core may turn their noses up against Miller. Why? While Miller’s off-ball scoring is impressive, his on-ball creativity isn’t so effective.
There is certainly a lack of athleticism/explosiveness. Ball-handling is loose in traffic and is not able to creating space. These two details severely limit Brandon Miller’s potential to score with the ball. Plus, Miller’s interior scoring is really thought-provoking. He has 34% FG at the non-transition rim finishes. His mid-range game is almost non-existent. Brandon Miller is a scorer who lives behind the arc. Such players are often unlikely to get big roles in the NBA. (Miller is only generate 0.54 points per position through P&Rs)
Passing skills should also be mentioned. When he’s on the move with the ball, he’s able to read the game quick and make some good dishes. But Miller doesn’t do this as a primary or secondary ball-handler. He’s not that kind of player yet. Even in the 36-point game against Gonzaga, we saw him struggling as a P&R ball-handler. He didn’t react well against the double teams. If he can improve his ball-handling, he can unlock his playmaking potential as well.
So, why should you draft Miller? Obviously, players like him are increasingly valued in today’s NBA. That’s why I said in the first paragraph, “We need to set our expectations right.” If you choose Brandon Miller in anticipation of the “new Kevin Durant,” you may be disappointed. But if you choose him with the idea of the 3rd or 4th part of the contender team, it is more likely that you will be satisfied. This puts us back in the Top 5 dilemma.
I rely on Miller’s off-ball impact, his perimeter shooting and defensive length. These make him a reliable 5-10 range player in my eyes.
It would have been literally awesome if the Orlando Magic had chosen Brandon Miller. I didn’t really consider the “fit factor” when I was preparing these mock. But it’s a perfect fit for Magic. A sought-after wing next to Banchero and Wagner for his off-ball scoring and length.
7- New Orleans Pelicans (via LAL): Keyonte George (SG/PG, 19.6 draft age)
Despite he doesn’t always make the right shot selections, George’s combo guard profile and scoring potential are exciting. Keyonte George, who is averaging 16.9 points this season, added 38.4 percent FG, 3.3 assists and 2.6 three-pointers. He has a deadly shooting range and is effective in pull-ups. Plus, he’s a good P&R playmaker, he can go to the rim and get to the line often. But my favorite thing about George is not one of them. Keyonte makes decisions very quickly when the ball is in his hands and always plays with a plan in his head. The decisions he makes are not always the right one. But as soon as he picks up the pass and finds the gap, he takes action. Many people compare him to D’Angelo Russell, but to me the difference is here. Keyonte is not as rhythm-killer as D’Angelo. He turns into a dangerous scorer, especially when he plays the game quickly and simply. Keyonte’s defensive consistency is a question mark. He’s also not a pure point guard.
8- Toronto Raptors: Jarace Walker (PF, 19.8 draft age)
Jarace Walker, who is 2.03 meters tall and weighs 108 kg, is physically at the level of Julius Randle and Isaiah Stewart. Jarace’s basketball is different from these two names. In addition to powerful body, he promises defensive versatility thanks to his 2.18-meter wingspan and terrific hip mobility. Jarace Walker is one of the most complete defenders in this draft class. Switchable in the perimeter, rarely misses his rotations in off-ball defense.
But Walker’s potential isn’t just about the defense. His offensive role is limited for the Houston Cougars. Despite this, he is able to make a big impact. Walker is not a high-volume point shooter, but he made 13 three-pointers in 20 games at 35 percent. Walker does quick reads on the short-roll and in the flow of the offense. His passing skills are promising. Walker is not a scorer, but he is dealing with important details on both sides of the court. He may evolve into a different offensive player in the future. His versatility is intriguing.
9- Orlando Magic (via CHI): Nick Smith Jr. (PG/SG, 19.1 draft age)
Nick Smith was one of the key candidates for the top 5. He started the season injured. After his return, he could not find his rhythm and after 5 games he was injured again. During this 5-match period, he could not offer enough material for the scouts. To make matters worse, he is not expected to return to the court before February. Injury problems weakened his hand. However, Nick Smith should not be given up immediately. Thanks to his 3-level scoring potential, combo guard profile and quickness, he still has a place in the back of our minds.
10- Phoenix Suns: Jett Howard (SG/SF, 19.9 draft age)
The son of 19-year NBA veteran Juwan Howard, Jett Howard is having a terrific season in the Michigan Wolverines under his father’s coaching. He was shooting 15.4 points, 38.8 3P% and 2.6 three-pointers by the time he went to the locker room in the Minnesota game. He has a notable threat in off-ball. But Jett Howard’s skill set isn’t all that. He has a high basketball IQ and his off-ball movement is effective. He can also be a factor when he gets the ball in his hands.
Jett is not a high-profile shot creator and a high-profile playmaker, but he can do a little bit of both. Jett Howard is a player who adds value to the offense. Later in his NBA career, he may evolve into a secondary ball-handler. Jett may not be a number one option, but he can reach double digits every night.