Game 1 win generates 71% success rate in the BCL Play-Ins

2025-01-09T13:18:46+00:00 2025-01-09T13:55:05+00:00.

Giannis Askounis

09/Jan/25 13:18

Eurohoops.net
davion-mintz-oostende

Starting a best-of-three series with a win is far from a guarantee to survive the Basketball Champions League Play-Ins

By Johnny Askounis/ info@eurohoops.net

Reviewing the intriguing history of the Play-Ins of the Basketball Champions League brings up various cases.

Since the 2021-22 edition of the league, the Play-Ins have served as a second opportunity to the middle seeds of the eight regular-season groups. Ranking second or third in the Regular Season secures a spot in a best-of-three series for a second chance to clinch a berth in the Round of 16.

Eurohoops revisited the previous best-of-three Play-In series of the Champions League.

Those looking for guarantees depending on the winner of Game 1 must continue the search since every possible outcome follows a win at home or on the road to start the series. The success rate of different starting situations is interesting though.

In Game 1 of the 2025 Play-Ins, five out of the second seeds of the Regular Season protected home-court advantage, Tuesday through Wednesday. The visitors prevailing in the remaining three battles produced a clinching opportunity at home next week.

Game 1 Win at home: 75%

Game 1 home win to Round of 16 12
Game 1 home win to elimination 4

Over the three previous seasons, 16 teams won Game 1 at home. In 12 cases, they advanced to the Round of 16 but the remaining four suffered back-to-back losses in Game 2 and Game 3. The success rate from a home win in Game 1 and a berth in the Round of 16 is 75%.

Six out of the 12 teams winning Game 1 at home swept the series but the remaining six lost Game 2 and required Game 3 to get the job done.

The opposite path, frustrating at least, saw four teams winning Game 1 at home but losing the next two games. The pack includes Hereda San Pablo Burgos coming off the BCL championship in 2021 to fall short against Darussafaka in 2022.

Similar meltdowns include Filou Oostende overcoming a Game 1 loss to eliminate Igokea m:tel in 2022. This season, the Belgian champions topped Nanterre 92 on the road to start the latest Play-In journey. Scroll down for more on those situations.

After taking a home win in Game 1, Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem and MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg fell victim to Prometey and Limoges CSP in 2022 and 2023.

Looking into home wins in this season’s Play-Ins, Aliaga Petkimspor, Galatasaray, Falco Vulcano Szombathely, Bertram Derthona Tortona, and Manisa are set to add to this scenario.

Game 1 win home or away: 71%

Game 1 win to the Round of 16 17
Game 1 win to elimination 7

A success rate of 71% surfaces disregarding home and away teams in the first part of the best-of-three series. Seventeen teams out of the 24 teams winning Game 1 eventually advanced.

The four aforementioned exceptions apply and are joined by three more teams dropping homecourt advantage in Game 1 but later recovering to progress to the Round of 16.

In 2022, Hapoel Holon knocked out Besiktas Icrypex in such a fashion. In 2023, it was Bahcesehir Koleji storming back to eliminate Oostende. In 2024, Cholet followed up at the expense of Dinamo Banco di Sardegna Sassari.

Game 1 away win to the Round of 16 5
Game 1 away win to elimination 3

Out of eight teams stealing homecourt advantage in Game 1, five have advanced, creating a success rate of 63%. Hapoel Holon, Bahcesehir Koleji, and Cholet shape the three exceptions.

Besides Oostende, this season Promitheas Vikos Cola and UnaHotels Reggio Emilia started their series with an away win.

Homecourt disadvantage

Eradicating any advantage of playing at home, last season’s Play-Ins featured a series with the away team prevailing in the maximum of three contests. Tofas went from a lopsided win over PAOK on the road to the wrong end of an overtime battle in Bursa and from there to a second win in Thessaloniki. Despite the crazy sequence, this series simply counts in the success rate of 63% for road teams prevailing in Game 1.

Photo Credit: FIBA

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