By Utkan Şahin & M. Bahadır Akgün / info@eurohoops.net
Basketball is just like the life… It can punish all the mistakes in a blink of an eye.
Sometimes a team can be playing very well for 38 minutes in a game, and then everything can just collapse within two minutes thanks to a series of simple mistakes.
What if it was not like this?
What if the rules were different and the winner was determined according to the amount of time a team was leading the game? Undoubtedly, the pure joy that comes with this game would diminish, although it might be considered more fair.
At Eurohoops, we analyzed all 96 games that have been played over the first 12 rounds and we uncovered what the results would look like in a less joyful but more fair game of basketball.
Here are the standings based on the accumulated time a team has been leading in the first 12 rounds of the 2017-18 season…
|
Standings based on the accumulated time a team leads |
W-L | Current Standings |
| 1- Fenerbahce Dogus Istanbul | 12-0 | 3rd |
| 2- Olympiacos Piraeus | 9-3 | 2nd |
| 3- CSKA Moscow | 9-3 | 1st |
| 4- Panathinaikos Superfoods Athens | 8-4 | 4th |
| 5- Real Madrid | 7-5 | 8th |
| 6- Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv | 7-5 | 5th |
| 7- Baskonia Vitoria Gasteiz | 6-6 | 9th |
| 8 – FC Barcelona Lassa | 6-6 | 12th |
| 9- Khimki Moscow Region | 6-6 | 7th |
| 10- Valencia Basket | 5-7 | 14th |
| 11- Zalgiris Kaunas | 5-7 | 6th |
| 12- Brose Bamberg | 5-7 | 10th |
| 13- Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade | 4-8 | 11th |
| 14- Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 3-9 | 15th |
| 15- Unicaja Malaga | 3-9 | 13th |
| 16- AX Armani Exchange Olimpia Milan | 2-10 | 16th |
Teams are ranked with the following criteria:
The team that is ahead in a game for the greatest period of time gets the virtual “win”.
By this standard, we would clearly have a different leader than the current one.
The reigning champs, Fenerbahce Dogus Istanbul, sit in third place in the official standings of the EuroLeague, with four losses. However, Zeljko Obradovic‘s players have led for longer periods of time than their opponents in all four of those defeats.
Having lost away to Unicaja Malaga in Spain and Panathinaikos Superfoods Athens in Greece, Fenerbahce has since suffered home defeats against Olympiacos Piraeus and Zalgiris Kaunas. If, however, we take into consideration the time they were ahead against all four of thosse teams, Fenerbahce would “win” those games.
CSKA Moscow has just two defeats and is the absolute leaders in the official standings. According to our alternative standings, though, they would have three defeats. As for the status of Olympiacos, almost nothing would be different for Vassilis Spanoulis and his gang.
They were trailing for longer periods of time in two defeats, and leading against Brose Bamberg in a game which they lost. Apart from the win against Fenerbahce in Istanbul, they were the leading side in their victories.
Strangely, Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv and Panathinaikos stayed right where they belong. Maccabi should have lost against Bamberg as they were behind for longer, but they were the winning side. As if to balance things out, they lost to Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade, against whom they were leading for a greater period of time.
Panathinaikos made sure they stayed in the right spot with four defeats in the EuroLeague’s official standings as well as our own virtual ones.
Having played without Sergio Llull so far, Real Madrid have five losses in 12 games. They should have beaten Panathinaikos, as they were ahead for 32 minutes but, once again, basketball is not about fairness… They could be in 5th place but instead they’re in 8th.
The case with Barcelona…
FC Barcelona Lassa could have turned the standings upside down. They have only four wins, which puts them in 11th place. But what if our standings were the official ones? They were not able to seal the victory after leading for 34 minutes against Bamberg and 28 minutes against AX Armani Exchange Olimpia Milan. Not being able to get the win after being ahead for such a long time in the course of a basketball game at the highest level carries the heaviest punishment: defeat.
Baskonia Vitoria Gasteiz could have lost to Panathinaikos after trailing for most of the game, yet Rodrigue Beaubois had something to say about that with a game-winning buzzer-beater. In a similar way, they could have beaten Khimki Moscow Region but they did not. So, two unfair games were added to yield a relatively fair placement.
Along with Barcelona, Valencia Basket is another team that deserved much more. According to the official standings, they only have three wins. But what if they had grabbed the wins against Milan and Bamberg after leading for 36 minutes and 34 minutes, respectively? Basketball has no mercy…
Despite seven victories, Khimki trailed more than they led against Baskonia and Milan. Still, the fact that they were the winners is what counts in the end.
The situation for Zalgiris had been fair enough until the game against Panathinaikos for Round 11. Zalgiris managed to grab the win despite the fact that Panathinaikos had been ahead for a longer period of time.
The warriors of Freak City!
Bamberg have become pretty well known for their comeback wins so far this season. The warriors of Freak City fought hard and grabbed two wins even though they were trailing and, surprisingly, they could not avoid losing to Maccabi and Milan even though they were leading for longer periods of time. Barcelona and Valencia were unlucky against the Germans.
Zvezda currently has four wins. The only exception could have been against Maccabi. Even though they were trailing for 27 minutes against the Israeli powerhouse, Zvezda somehow got the win.
Anadolu Efes Istanbul is one of those teams whose record seems completely fair. They have three wins, in which they led for longer. And in their defeats, Efes were always trailing for a longer period of time than the winning side.
At this point, we must warn you: please be seated and fasten your seatbelts, as you are about to witness how Milan could have changed things but didn’t manage to do so. Milan trailed more than they led in all three games they won. Moreover, against the two Russian powerhouses, they were leading for longer but this did not allow them to win those games.
Things have looked pretty fair for Malaga since their very first win against the reigning champs, Fenerbahce. On that day, Malaga led for only 12 minutes, but this did not prevent them from winning the game in the end.
Standings according to detailed times the teams have been leading and trailing
| Ranking | Time the team was leading | Time the team was trailing | Time the game was tied | Total Playing Time |
| Fenerbahce Dogus Istanbul | 350 m 15 s | 99 m 8 s | 45 m 37 s | 495 m |
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 324 m 26 s | 125 m 45 s | 29 m 49 s | 490 m |
| CSKA Moscow | 312 m 46 s | 140 m 54 s | 31 m 20 s | 485 m |
| Real Madrid | 269 m 46 s | 188 m 17 s | 26 m 67 s | 485 m |
| Baskonia Vitoria Gasteiz | 253 m 4 s | 203 m 40 s | 23 m 16 s | 480 m |
| Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv | 238 m 44 s | 204 m 49 s | 36 m 27 s | 480 m |
| Panathinaikos Superfoods Athens | 231 m 10 s | 213 m 39 s | 25 m 11 s | 480 m |
| FC Barcelona Lassa | 228 m 6 s | 227 m 56 s | 23 m 58 s | 480 m |
| Valencia Basket | 224 m 20 s | 233 m 13 s | 32 m 27 s | 490 m |
| Zalgiris Kaunas | 203 m 32 s | 248 m 3 s | 33 m 25 s | 485 m |
| Khimki Moscow Region | 190 m 52 s | 254 m 38 s | 34 m 30 s | 480 m |
| Brose Bamberg | 173 m 37 s | 270 m 32 s | 35 m 51 s | 480 m |
| Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade | 161 m 12 s | 287 m 13 s | 31 m 35 s | 480 m |
| Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 151 m 51 s | 295 m 1 s | 33 m 8 s | 480 m |
| AX Armani Exchange Olimpia Milan | 147 m 30 s | 312 m 3 s | 35 m 27 s | 495 m |
| Unicaja Malaga | 145 m 6 s | 301 m 26 s | 38 m 28 s | 485 m |
Fenerbahce were the leading side in all 12 of their games and, out of 495 minutes, they led for 350. They trailed for only 99 minutes, which amounts to 8.25 minutes per game. This is what domination means.
Last year’s EuroLeague finalists are clearly dominating the minutes on the court. Aside from Fenerbahce, Olympiacos and CSKA are the only teams that exceeded the 300-minute mark.
Madrid, Maccabi, Barcelona, Panathinaikos and Baskonia are the only other teams with a game-leading rate of over 50%.
Especially for Barcelona, the fact that they have the lead for 19 minutes per game and yet have only four wins, is pretty remarkable. Not to mention that they are currently ranked outside of the playoff spots.
Another strange fact applies to Zalgiris and Khimki. Both have gotten some important wins and are among the eight playoff-level teams at this point of the season, even though they led games for shorter periods of time than their opponents. Zalgiris and Khimki could register only 203 and 190 minutes of leading time, respectively.
Taking a look at the bottom of the standings, we can see that Malaga is the team with the least minutes of leading time. Milan had the advantage for 147 minutes and Efes for 151.
Even though Zvezda have five wins, they only managed to be ahead for a total of 161 minutes. How could this be possible? Let us explain with some additional stats.
Number of games in which the teams could never claim the lead:
Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade – 3 games
Valencia Basket – 2 games
Zalgiris Kaunas – 1 game
Khimki Moscow Region – 1 game
Panathinaikos Superfoods Athens – 1 game
Real Madrid – 1 game
Unicaja Malaga – 1 game
We never saw Zvezda lead in three of the seven defeats they suffered in these first 12 games. Even more surprisingly, Valencia were not able to be the leading side in two games, even though they’ve had the advantage for a total 224 minutes.
Number of games in which teams led for 35+ minutes:
Olympiacos Piraeus – 5 games
Real Madrid – 4 games
Valencia Basket – 4 games
CSKA Moscow – 4 games
Fenerbahce Dogus Istanbul – 3 games
Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv – 2 games
Panathinaikos Superfoods Athens – 2 games
FC Barcelona Lassa – 2 games
Baskonia Vitoria Gasteiz – 2 games
Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade – 2 games
Khimki Moscow Region – 1 game
Brose Bamberg – 1 game
Anadolu Efes Istanbul – 1 game
Unicaja Malaga – 1 game
Olympiacos have demonstrated their indisputable domination once again, as they were ahead throughout five of their nine victories.
After 96 games, the one with the smallest gap between the two teams:
Game 3: Malaga – Bamberg
Time Bamberg led: 16 minutes 48 seconds
Time Malaga led: 16 minutes 46 seconds
Time the game was tied: 6 minutes 26 seconds
After all is said and done, we are living in the real world, dealing with a real basketball environment, where a mistake can come at a much greater price at the highest level in Europe. The top basketball competition on the Old Continent, the EuroLeague, holds the greatest of surprises. And this is how basketball attracts and fascinates us…