By John Rammas/ irammas@eurohoops.net
Status, dynamics, form and the significance of results were the criteria for ranking the 16 teams.
#16 DARUSSAFAKA TEKFEN ISTANBUL
Previous ranking: 16 (-)
Record: 3-21
At home: 3-9
Away: 0-12
Offense-Defense: 74.3-84.8
Darussafaka has been stuck at the bottom of the rankings since Round 7, and with three wins separating them from the next-to-last team, that is where they’re expected to finish the race. This outcome makes sense for the worst offense and third-worst defense in the competition. Darussafaka’s interest in the remaining games is whether they can cause disruption among the teams that aspire to get in the playoffs, as they recently did against KIROLBET Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (80-75 in Round 20). That’s only likely to happen at home against Panathinaikos OPAP Athens or FC Bayern Munich), since Darussafaka has not won away this season.
#15 HERBALIFE GRAN CANARIA
Previous ranking: 15 (-)
Record: 6-18
At home: 4-9
Away: 2-9
Offense-Defense: 79.1-89
Gran Canaria counts nine consecutive defeats and has an unchanged ranking that, with four of its remaining six games being away from home, seems unlikely to move up or down. If their offense (ninth best) tries for something better, their defense (worst in the competition) will most likely prevent it for the umpteenth time. On the other hand, Gran Canaria’s six wins so far is perhaps a satisfactory number for a team that experienced everything – on the court (changing coaches) and off (continuous long trips) – in its first appearance in the EuroLeague.
#14 BUDUCNOST VOLI PODGORICA
Previous ranking: 14 (-)
Record: 6-18
At home: 6-7
Away: 0-11
Offense-Defense: 74.6-84.6
Its three consecutive wins between Round 18 and Round 20 were perhaps too many for the well-meaning Buducnost. Since then, this team has four defeats in a row and continues being third-to-last in the rankings, its consistent position since Round 10. A change is not expected, and not with the EuroLeague’s second-worst offense and fourth-worst defense, and not with the remaining games being against top four teams and other teams looking to make the playoffs. Whether Buducnost will be able to make some noise in home games against Olympiacos Piraeus (Round 25) and Anadolu Efes Istanbul (Round 28), as the team did against CSKA Moscow and Real Madrid, is something that remains to be seen.
#13 KHIMKI MOSCOW REGION
Previous ranking: 13 (-)
Record: 9-15
At home: 6-6
Away: 3-9
Offense-Defense: 78.4-80
Fourteen games without Alexey Shved (Rounds 10-23) were too many for Khimki Moscow Region to hope to qualify for the playoffs even after his return. A last-minute 88-90 home loss to AX Armani Exchange Olimpia Milan in Round 24 put Khimki’s first foot outside the playoffs race, but damage had already been done by eight defeats in Shved’s absence – not to mention that of Anthony Gill. Now, they can only try to force teams like Baskonia (Round 25), Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv (Round 28) and FC Barcelona Lassa (Round 30) to sweat. With a bit more effort in offense (sixth best) and defense (seventh worst), Khimki could yet take on the role of spoiler.
#12 ZALGIRIS KAUNAS
Previous ranking: 11 (-1)
Record: 9-15
At home: 5-7
Away: 4-8
Offense-Defense: 77.7-79.5
Returning to the Final Four last season for the first time since they won the trophy in 1999 wasn’t followed up on like everyone was expecting in Kaunas, because short of a miracle, Zalgiris is not going back to the playoffs. Eight defeats in the last ten games made sure of this. This team never managed to find offensive consistency (third worst) and keep squandering the effort put in on defense (fifth best), although Brandon Davies (sixth in the PIR) has done and continues to do everything in his power to change the situation.
#11 FC BAYERN MUNICH
Previous ranking: 8 (-3)
Record: 12-12
At home: 8-4
Away: 4-8
Offense-Defense: 79.6-80.5
Bayern entered the second half of the regular season facing 10 away games out of 15, but nonetheless has coped well behind Derrick Williams’ (12th in PIR). Still, what’s coming up is even more difficult for Bayern. In the last two rounds, the German champs have been thrown from the top eight and lost a second time to Baskonia (77-71 in Round 4, 76-68 in Round 22). Now, they must beat Maccabi at home in Round 25 or fall lower. Then it’s on the road against Zalgiris and Olympiacos before facing Barcelona at home. If they don’t improve to the extent required (seventh-best offense, sixth-worst defense), the final two games against Darussafaka and Gran Canaria may prove to be without any importance.
#10 PANATHINAIKOS OPAP ATHENS
Previous ranking: 12 (+2)
Record: 11-13
At home: 9-3
Away: 2-10
Offense-Defense: 78.9-79.9
Better late than never. Panathinaikos managed to win away from home for just the second time and to celebrate two wins in a row (94-85 over Khimki, 80-99 over Gran Canaria) for the first time since Rounds 5 and 6. As such, the Greens are still hoping to get back into the top eight, although to do so they’ll need to improve their performances away from home even more, especially with trips to Darussafaka, CSKA and Milan over the next four rounds. Nick Calathes (ranked 15th in PIR) is still a reference point in their game, while the returns of Keith Langford and Matt Lojeski are a luxury for the seventh-worst offense and eighth-best defense in the EuroLeague.
#9 OLYMPIACOS PIRAEUS
Previous ranking: 5 (-4)
Record: 12-12
At home: 8-4
Away: 4-8
Offense-Defense: 77.8-77.5
Until recently, Olympiacos were trying to figure out whether they’d have enough time to get to fourth place. But following five defeats in a row – the second-worst losing streak in the team’s EuroLeague history – the Reds tremble at the thought of worst-case scenarios like missing the playoffs. In between visiting Buducnost this week and finishing the season with three games against teams likely out of the playoffs by then, Olympiacos faces key games in Milan and at home against Bayern. No one can predict anything about Nikola Milutinov (third in the PIR) and his gang any longer. Now, it’s a battle between their good and bad selves, as it’s been for a while now between their defense (fourth best) and offense (fourth worst).
#8 MACCABI FOX TEL AVIV
Previous ranking: 7 (-1)
Record: 11-13
At home: 8-4
Away: 3-9
Offense-Defense: 79.3-79.5
The long-lasting counterattack under the instructions of Ioannis Sfairopoulos (10-7) continues for Maccabi, who have been in 10th place consistently since Round 19 and are dreaming of going even higher, despite losing tiebreakers to Baskonia (97-73 in Round 21) and Milan (87-83 in Round 23). The next two games coming up (Bayern away, Efes at home) could decide Maccabi’s future in the competition, but with Tarik Black in form, plus an offense (eighth best) and defense (sixth best) on the rise, the fans in Tel Aviv would like to believe this looks promising.
#7 KIROLBET BASKONIA VITORIA-GASTEIZ
Previous ranking: 9 (+2)
Record: 12-12
At home: 8-3
Away: 4-9
Offense-Defense: 81-79.5
With their home court as their ally – they’re 5-0 there in the new year – Baskonia continues to cover for the absences of Jayson Granger and Tornike Shengelia. With another four of the remaining six games being at home – half of them against teams with similar goals – they may just cover the distance to the playoffs, too. Not that the other two games (at Panathinaikos in Round 27 and at CSKA in Round 30) don’t involve their own high degree of risk. On the contrary. Baskonia remains consistently good on offense (sixth best) and keeps improving on defense (seventh best), with Vincent Poirier (10th in PIR) as the key contributor.
#6 AX ARMANI EXCHANGE OLIMPIA MILAN
Previous ranking: 10 (+4)
Record: 13-11
At home: 7-5
Away: 6-6
Offense-Defense: 87.5-86
Any other team might have panicked at the loss of a player who is fourth in the PIR (Arturas Gudaitis) for the rest of the season, but not Milan, who always had multiple protagonists and who has added James Nunnally. Five consecutive wins have reinstated Milan in a strong position in terms of the second group of four teams that will head to the playoffs, even though they will now have to prove it even more with five games coming up against teams from top eight, plus a road game against Panathinaikos. Mike James (first in the PIR and Player of the Month for February, the first in the team’s history) knows what he has to do, but the imbalance between offense (second best) and defense (second worst) is still a challenge to overcome.
#5 ANADOLU EFES ISTANBUL
Previous ranking: 4 (-1)
Record: 15-9
At home: 10-2
Away: 5-7
Offense-Defense: 84.1-79.8
Efes has held fourth place since Round 8, but its three consecutive away losses (to Madrid, Panathinaikos and Fenerbahce) have brought the team close to derailment. The upcoming home game against Barcelona will decide a lot in terms of the home-court advantage in the playoffs, even if, in case of a win, Efes probably won’t cover the difference of 15 points (80-65) it gave up in their first meeting. In case of a defeat, this would essentially count as double and the margins to make up for any mistakes have already narrowed for Adrien Moerman (ninth in the PIR) and his gang (fourth-best offense, eighth-best defense).